TL/DR –
Iraq is approaching its sixth parliamentary election amid apparent calm, but underlying political structures remain intact, which could impede long-term stability. The aftermath of the November 11 election is expected to bring more change than the vote itself, with new leaders determining the direction of the country. Issues the new government must address include water and climate problems, migration-related tensions, narcotics trafficking, and the over-centralization of power in the capital.
As Iraq faces its sixth parliamentary election, the quietness doesn’t signify long-term stability. The country’s politics remain unaltered with informal decision-making, quota-based muhasasa ensuring loyalty, and fragmented security forces.
The election on November 11 will likely change the parliamentary balance and speed up government formation, especially with influential Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr out of politics. However, it won’t significantly change power dynamics in Iraq, as the answers to several critical questions will determine Iraq’s path in the coming year.
The absence of an emergency is not stability
The calm in Baghdad misleads many into thinking it implies stability. Still, the underlying authority structure remains unchanged with major decisions negotiated outside formal institutions.
This creates a gap between form and substance, with real power determined through leader-to-leader dealings. Citizens see procedures but don’t experience oversight and accountability, leading to shared accountability when policies fail.
The state of Iraqi politics today
The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a key component of Iraqi politics, consists of four factions each with different loyalties and intentions. The first group, the pro-Iran camp, is the most influential and contentious.
Post-election, while the muhasasa continues, ministry shares are allocated using informal formulas. The real bargaining revolves around portfolio changes. Some swaps, like the Shia prime minister, Kurdish president, and Sunni speaker positions, are predictable due to their traditional ties.
A falsifiable and straightforward test
The real challenge lies in whether Iraqi elites can establish rules post-election to address critical issues like hydrocarbons and fiscal flows. The big question is whether Iraq can create a law ensuring automatic and depoliticized budget and oil flow.
Four threats to Iraqis in the year ahead
The next Iraqi government faces four major challenges – water and climate issues, urban social friction, narcotics, and power centralization. Each of these issues requires a unique solution – treating water as a national security issue, stabilizing municipal investment, implementing a public-health approach, and managing power decentralization, respectively.
The view from Washington
US partners have an opportunity to leverage their diplomacy to make significant strides in these areas. However, it’s crucial that they don’t support a specific candidate for Iraq’s next prime minister. The informal, consensus-driven process that usually decides the prime minister should be allowed to occur naturally.
Further reading
Article by Yerevan Saeed, nonresident senior fellow at the Iraq Initiative and scholar-in-residence at the Department of Politics, Governance, and Economics at the American University School of International Service.
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