TL/DR –
Following impressive wins by Democrats among Latino voters in recent state-level elections, some Republicans are expressing concern about potential shifts in Latino voter alignments. Victories in gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia were partly due to strong Latino support for Democratic candidates, reversing some of President Trump’s gains from the 2024 elections. Some Republicans argue the party needs to pay attention to this shift, acknowledging the potential negative impact of the Trump administration’s immigration policies on its standing with Latino voters.
Latino Voter Shift towards Democrats Concerns Republicans
After President Trump’s gains among Latino voters in November 2024, recent victories by Democrats in major elections have sparked concern among Republicans. Rep. Maria Salazar (R-Fla) alerted the GOP to the noticeable shift.
Following the Democrats’ double-digit victories in the New Jersey and Virginia governor’s races, significant contributions from Latino voters were noted, as per NBC News exit polling.
In these elections, Latino voters favored Democrats by large margins. Notably, Latino men, who previously leaned pro-Trump, voted Democrat this time.
The standout Latino support in New Jersey, where 10% of the voters belonged to this demographic, led to a 13-point victory for Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill against Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
Sherrill’s success was particularly prominent in Passaic County – home to a significant 45% Latino population, according to census data.
Though some Republicans such as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La) dismiss these demographic shifts, others warn of the need to pay attention to the Latino shift towards Democrats, especially as Trump heightens immigrant detentions and deportations.
In the eyes of Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla), Trump’s immigration agenda is not going down well in Latino communities.
A Texas House Republican, speaking anonymously, mentioned the importance more Latino voter inclusion in the GOP, especially with Trump absent in next year’s midterms. “Clearly it’s an issue, and a big one,” the member said.
Hudson County, New Jersey GOP chairman Jose Arango believes people’s votes are messages that elected officials should pay heed to. In his county, which is 41% Latino, Sherrill won by 50 points.
Arango referred to a case of ICE detaining a popular restaurant owner just days before the election, noting voter dissatisfaction with such incidents and other government issues.
Salazar, however, stressed the need for a balanced approach to immigration while maintaining border security and a strong economy. She highlighted her proposal to provide legal status for certain undocumented workers.
Concerns about Trump’s immigration enforcement were evident among Latino voters, with majorities in New Jersey, Virginia, California, and New York City indicating the administration has gone too far, as per exit polls.
In spite of concerns about the Trump administration, the economy remained the top issue for Latino voters. These voters, in various states, consistently reported economic or cost of living as the top factors influencing their vote.
Democratic strategist, Chuck Rocha, who worked on the New Jersey Democratic Party’s canvassing effort, acknowledged that voters’ top concerns were economic, although there were concerns about ICE.
“There’s a group of Latinos who gave Republicans a shot in the presidential [election],” Rocha said, later adding, “It hasn’t gotten any better under Trump and in fact got worse.”
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