TL/DR –
YouGov surveys conducted in late October indicate that Democrats lead in gubernatorial races in both Virginia and New Jersey. In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger is forecasted to have a substantial lead, with 55% of voters favoring her over Republican candidate Winsome Earle-Sears. Meanwhile, in New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill is predicted to have a narrower lead, with 51% of voters favoring her over Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
Democrats are in the lead in gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, according to YouGov surveys conducted October 17 – 28.
Virginia
In Virginia, Democratic contender Abigail Spanberger holds a solid lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, favored by 55% of likely voters, while Earle-Sears receives 41% support, and 4% remain undecided.
Spanberger’s lead is driven by capturing a larger share of Democrats (97%) than Earle-Sears does among Republicans (92%) and an impressive lead among Independents (58% to 34%).
The survey shows Spanberger leading modestly among white voters (51% to 46%) and significantly among Hispanics (61% to 24%) and Black voters (81% to 17%).
Including undecided voters leaning toward a candidate, Spanberger’s lead extends to a 57% to 42% margin.
New Jersey
New Jersey’s gubernatorial race is tighter, with Democrat Mikie Sherrill holding a 51% to 42% lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Other candidates are preferred by 1%, and 5% are undecided.
Sherrill, similar to Virginia, gains a larger share of Democrats (96%) than Ciattarelli does among Republicans (93%). However, Ciattarelli has a slim advantage (44% to 43%) among independents.
Race-wise, Sherrill leads narrowly among white voters (49% to 45%), but has a considerable lead among Hispanics (59% to 32%) and Black voters (74% to 18%).
Upon counting undecided voters’ leanings, Sherrill’s lead is 54% to 44%.
View the YouGov poll results for New Jersey and Virginia.
Methodology: The polls, conducted online from October 17 – 28, surveyed 1,179 likely voters in Virginia and 1,153 in New Jersey, all recruited via text messages. The sample was weighted according to factors like gender, age, past election turnout, in-state geography, education, race, and 2024 vote choice. The margin of error for each state’s sample is approximately 4 percentage points.
Image: Win McNamee / Getty Staff
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