TL/DR –
During President Biden’s term, talks began between the US and Saudi Arabia to negotiate the nation’s diplomatic relations with Israel, however these deteriorated when the Israel-Hamas war began. Now, officials report progress towards an agreement on the key elements sought by the Saudis from this deal: a US-Saudi defense pact and cooperation on a civilian nuclear scheme in Saudi Arabia. The agreement hinges on Israel’s acceptance of a Palestinian state, part of a broader vision combining US-Saudi bilateral understanding with the normalization of Israeli-Saudi relations and significant steps made on behalf of Palestinians.
US-Saudi-Israel Negotiations on Verge of Breakthrough Amidst Ongoing Conflict
The administration of President Biden is nearing the conclusion of talks with Saudi Arabia. The discussions focus on the establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel, a move that was put on hold due to the Israel-Hamas war. Negotiations were revived by demanding more from Israel, including a cease-fire in Gaza and substantiative steps towards a Palestinian state.
The deal will likely include a U.S.-Saudi mutual defense pact and cooperative efforts on a civilian nuclear program. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed these components during Blinken’s visit to Riyadh last month. However, there’s no evidence of Israeli leaders joining in yet.
Potential Roadblocks to Agreement
Resistance from the Israeli side and the potential for a full-scale assault on the city of Rafah, endanger the potential three-way deal that Biden envisions as the key to solving the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Meanwhile, officials from the US and Saudi Arabia are approaching a deal that they will present to Israel – offering a path to regional peace and potential security cooperation with Saudi Arabia or continuing the cycle of Israeli-Palestinian violence.
Strict Conditions for the Agreement
For the agreement to be finalized, U.S. officials have emphasized that Israel must agree to a Palestinian state. The integrated vision includes a bilateral understanding between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and meaningful steps for the Palestinian people.
Saudi Leaders Remain Hopeful
Despite the potential difficulties in achieving the Israeli-Palestinian part of the deal, Saudi officials remain hopeful and continue to insist on a larger deal with an Israeli commitment on a Palestinian nation. However, even the Saudi’s most immediate demand of Israel – a sustainable cease-fire in Gaza – seems out of reach at the moment.
The Fallout from the Abraham Accords
Officials in the region assert that the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain gained little from normalizing ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords, with the Israeli government failing to fulfill promises to respect Palestinian territory in the West Bank.
Heightened Stakes for Israel
Since the war, the stakes for Israel have risen, as Biden sees a deal involving a Palestinian nation as a critical component of the war’s endgame. Saudi Arabia, the United States, and other nations have warned Israel not to carry out a major offensive in Gaza, where more than a million Palestinians have sought shelter.
Possible Defense Treaty Between the US and Saudi Arabia
U.S. and Saudi officials are modeling a defense treaty on the pacts that the United States has with Japan and its other Asian allies. This is largely due to Saudi Arabia’s fear of Iran, as the Trump administration did not intervene when Saudi’s oil installations were attacked in 2019.
Future of the Civilian Nuclear Program
In addition to security, the deal also includes cooperation on a civilian nuclear program, which is important for Prince Mohammed. Prince Mohammed says Saudi Arabia will develop nuclear weapons if Iran does, leading to opposition from some U.S. lawmakers and many Israeli officials towards Saudi Arabia having a nuclear program.
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