TL/DR –
Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson is struggling to secure passage of his $17.3 billion budget for 2025. Johnson, who promised no property tax increases and “bold progressive investments,” attempted to resort to traditional political horse-trading to garner support, but fell short of a council majority and canceled a budget vote rather than face a significant defeat. Now, with an end-of-year deadline looming and aldermen more empowered to demand further concessions, observers expect the ongoing chaos to have long-term implications for Chicago’s political landscape.
Mayor Brandon Johnson is under fire after his 2025 budget plan fell through last week. Despite his team’s efforts to mend relations with aldermen, Johnson failed to secure enough support and was compelled to postpone the budget vote to avoid a historic defeat.
Johnson, a progressive mayor who styled himself as “collaborator-in-chief,” attempted old-school bargaining tactics to win over aldermen; however, these efforts proved insufficient. With a year-end deadline looming, Johnson must now convince more aldermen to support his $17.3 billion spending plan or face a potential government shutdown.
While the mayor was successful in some backroom negotiations, the overall lack of support from Chicago’s 50 aldermen has raised questions about his political future.
Even aldermen planning to vote for the budget, such as Ald. Daniel La Spata, 1st, expressed concerns about Johnson’s leadership. “It can always get worse. The mayor’s ability to get that budget passed is dependent on relationships and trust, and I think that is what has been damaged severely,” La Spata said.
Horse-trading and Last-minute Concessions
Despite Johnson’s claims about changing the city’s governing style, his team made several last-minute promises to secure support. This included a promise to Ald. David Moore, 17th, of securing about $30 million for a new Ogden Park field house in exchange for his endorsement of the budget plan.
Other attempts, however, were less successful. For instance, an ordinance amendment proposed by the city’s Law Department containing a provision that would nullify the changes should the City Council fail to pass Johnson’s 2025 spending plan by the end of the last Friday was met with resistance.
Political Capital
Aldermen are reluctant to align themselves with Johnson given his dwindling popularity. Jason McGrath, a Chicago-based pollster, said that “City Council members aren’t stupid… Why would they tether themselves to a lead balloon?” This reluctance is even more pronounced among freshmen progressives who are yet to prove their mettle with constituents.
Ticking Bombs
Continuing negotiations have largely ignored the city’s long-term structural sustainability, leading to the possibility of similar discussions next year. Many of the gap-closing measures in the budget are one-time fixes, setting the stage for a potentially tumultuous budget debate next year.
This year’s budget relies heavily on temporary fixes such as $74 million in remaining federal pandemic American Rescue Plan Act funds and a record-breaking $570 million surplus from the city’s tax increment financing districts, or TIFs. S&P warned that if the next budget is balanced with too many one-time revenues, it could lead to a downgrade.
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