TL/DR –
The UK and US are expected to hold general elections at the same time in 2024, which could present a unique test for democracy against a backdrop of global instability and technological advancements. The writer, a professor of politics at the University of Oxford, notes that these developments could lead to problems such as increased political polarization, the spreading of misinformation online, and changes in foreign policy that could destabilize the NATO alliance. He suggests that proactive citizens can mitigate some of these risks by consuming and posting reliable information online, while punishing politicians who seek to polarize.
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The Future of Democracy with Upcoming US and UK Elections
The writer is a professor of politics at the University of Oxford and author of ‘Why Politics Fails’. He will be giving the BBC Reith Lectures, starting on November 29.
A pivotal test for democracy is emerging, with a potential UK general election and the US presidential race set for 2024. The last confluence of US and UK elections was in 1964, during the cold war and post JFK assassination. This time, the concurrent elections bring unprecedented challenges owing to new technologies.
The international landscape today is dramatically different. Shifting power dynamics, active conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and a divided Republican party over Ukraine support, as well as Labour’s stance on Gaza, are creating uncertainties. This could result in credibility issues for US and UK foreign policy as the elections draw nearer.
Risks of Simultaneous Elections and Role of Social Media
Simultaneous elections in the age of digital media increases the risks of misinformation. The Gaza conflict has been a catalyst for misleading posts using outdated photos and videos. Advances in artificial intelligence exacerbate this through deepfakes.
The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre has already warned about election interference via simulated audio and video of leaders on social media. Cyber espionage and misinformation from foreign adversaries are prominent concerns.
Political Polarization and Voter Behaviour
Parallel elections could further drive political polarisation, with voters choosing based on fear, not hope. Social media changes the dynamic of politics, leading voters down partisan paths and isolating them from differing views.
US politics heavily influences British politicians, especially the online campaigns of the Republican right. US online right-wing language and their issues with courts, education, and media are now omnipresent in the UK, which can be seen in the new National Conservatism group. Similar dynamics are evident in Labour party with US identity politics influencing the debate.
Mitigating the Risks
One solution to mitigate the risks could be for the UK to schedule an earlier election. However, if the elections do coincide, steps must be taken to address the potential volatility, misinformation, and polarisation. Intelligence agencies must prepare for cyber manipulation during this period of insecurity, and as citizens, it is crucial to make responsible information consumption choices and hold polarising politicians accountable.
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