TL/DR –
The field of candidates for the California governorship has stabilized at nine Democrats and two Republicans, with a poll by the Public Policy Institute of California revealing that no clear frontrunners have emerged. The leading candidates, with support ranging from 10% to 14%, include Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, both Republicans, as well as Democrats Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell, and Tom Steyer. However, concerns have been raised that the large number of Democratic candidates could lead to a fragmented vote, potentially allowing the two Republican candidates to emerge as the top two in the June primary, despite the state’s historically strong Democratic leanings.
Welcome to CalMatters
Welcome to CalMatters, your nonprofit newsroom covering Californian-wide issues. Sign up for the WeeklyMatters for a Saturday morning digest of the latest Golden State news and commentary.
California Voices
This story is part of California Voices, a commentary forum aiming to broaden our understanding of the California state and its policies. Learn more here.
In the past year, as the fluctuating list of potential candidates for governor began to stabilize, independent polling now reveals the likely contenders. The cast of candidates — nine Democrats and two Republicans — finally take shape.
A recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California divides the field into five candidates with support ranging from 10% to 14%, leaving six in the single digits. However, there are no clear frontrunners for the June primary election.
The poll began just five days after the last Democratic candidate, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, joined the race. Mahan, with likely financial backing from Silicon Valley’s tech tycoons, is expected to become a major contender.
Two of the five candidates with double-digit support are Republicans — former television commentator Steve Hilton, leading at 14%, and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (12%) — despite a Republican’s slim chance of winning the governorship in California. This scenario has sparked concerns among Democratic leaders that if all nine Democrats continue in the race, they could fragment the Democratic vote, making it possible for Hilton and Bianco to finish one-two in June, giving the state a GOP governor.
The highest-ranked Democrat in the PPIC poll is Katie Porter at 13%, likely due to her name recognition from a Senate race. The other top five candidates include Congressman Eric Swalwell (11%), and billionaire Tom Steyer with 10% support.
The remaining six candidates, including former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond, and former Attorney General Xavier Becerra, share 30% of voters’ support. And 10% have yet to make a choice.
The primary election is just over three months away with no clear frontrunner, causing the next phase to occur behind closed doors. Wealthy individuals, unions, and other interest groups financing Democratic politicians must decide who to favor.
Campaigning in California is expensive, and all candidates, except Steyer, must depend on these financiers. This creates a shadow election in which a few moneyed interests will cast the votes. If the single-digit candidates lose this shadow election, they may struggle to continue their campaigns.
Democratic leaders concerned about the two Republicans finishing one-two in the primary will likely pressure the five lower-ranking candidates to drop out, so that the party’s voters can coalesce around the top candidates. It’s crunch time for these candidates to demonstrate their potential to climb into the upper ranks or withdraw from the race.
Support CalMatters
CalMatters is your nonpartisan and independent news guide. Our mission continues to be essential. We are independent and nonpartisan, focused on Californian issues, and hold people in power accountable. But we need your support. Please give what you can today. Every gift helps.
—
Read More US Political News