TL/DR –
Eliquis (apixaban), an anticoagulant drug with global sales of $14.4bn in 2025, is expected to see patent expirations this year in Europe and in 2027 in the US and Japan. Global sales are predicted to drop drastically from $14.4bn in 2025 to $205m in 2031 due to loss of exclusivity (LOE), starting with a drop in Europe in 2026 followed by a larger drop in the US in 2028. To counter the projected revenue loss, Eliquis manufacturer Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) has utilized a capital allocation strategy, acquiring Karuna Therapeutics and RayzeBio, to foster growth in neuroscience and radiopharmaceuticals.
Eliquis Patent Expiry to Trigger Significant Revenue Loss for Bristol Myers Squibb
As a highly impactful loss-of-exclusivity (LOE) event in the pharmaceutical industry, the patent expiration of Eliquis (apixaban) is anticipated to bring about massive revenue implications for Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS). The patent is set to expire this year in Europe and in 2027 for both the US and Japan. Eliquis, a small molecule direct factor Xa inhibitor, is a major product for BMS, developed in collaboration with Pfizer. It is globally recognized as the dominant oral anticoagulant – a position that has resulted in significant sales, reaching $14.4bn in 2025.
Marked as one of the industry’s highest-grossing small molecules, Eliquis is used in the prevention of strokes, atrial fibrillation, and conditions associated with venous thromboembolism, including deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. With regulatory approval from the EU in May 2011 and the US FDA in December 2012, the brand has built an expansive prescriber base and earned wide clinical adoption across the globe.
Forecasted Revenue Decline Post-Exclusivity
The end of Eliquis’ exclusivity is expected to lead to a substantial drop in global sales, estimated to reduce from $14.4bn in 2025 to a mere $205m in 2031. This drastic decrease of 98.6% represents one of the most significant single-asset LOE events ever seen in the pharmaceutical industry. The downfall starts with the European patent expiry in May 2026, followed by a steep drop in the US in 2028, accounting for the most severe absolute revenue loss.
The initial wave of the revenue drop will primarily affect the non-US market, with Rest of World revenues declining by nearly 75% between 2025 and 2027. The US market, however, is predicted to remain largely unaffected during this time, with its share of total portfolio revenues increasing to almost 90% by 2027. However, the US market is also likely to see a significant drop in revenue, falling by 99% from its peak in 2025 by 2031, making up for over $10bn of the total losses over the forecast period.
BMS’s Shift in Capital Allocation Strategy
In response to the looming Eliquis revenue loss, BMS has been shifting its capital allocation strategy. Large-scale acquisitions of Karuna Therapeutics ($14bn) and RayzeBio ($4.1bn) show the company’s strategic focus on neuroscience and radiopharmaceuticals as potential growth areas. One of these acquisitions, Karuna Therapeutics, has already started to pay off as the FDA approved its product Cobenfy (formerly known as KarXT) in September 2024. The approved drug, the first new class of schizophrenia treatment in over 50 years, commercially launched in the US later in 2024.
The revenue decline of Eliquis serves as a stark reminder of the risk big pharma companies face when heavily relying on a single asset. The forecasted drop from $14.4bn in 2025 to less than $1bn in about five years underlines the importance of early diversification ahead of LOE events. As one of the largest cardiovascular brands currently facing the loss of exclusivity, the fate of Eliquis offers a crucial benchmark for the pace of revenue decline when major markets transition to generics.
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