TL/DR –
The global renewable energy sector continues to grow, with investments hitting $3 trillion in 2025 and capacity expected to double by 2030, including a significant rise in floating offshore wind installations. However, in the US, sentiment towards renewables has declined under the current administration, leading to a near 50% reduction in forecast growth in renewable power capacity due to policy, regulatory, and market changes. Despite this, underlying trends suggest renewables could support US future energy demands, with geothermal energy identified as a growth priority due to its potential to improve energy security, stimulate economic development, and support AI-driven innovation.
Renewable Energy: A Look at the Trends
Optimism surrounds the global renewable energy landscape, as investments in clean energy continue to expand, with estimates pegging the worth of the sector at over $3 trillion by 2025[8]. The future also looks promising for renewable power capacity, expected to see a twofold increase from its current state by 2030[9]. Interestingly, Scotland’s forte, floating offshore wind installations, has witnessed a 13% jump in the past year and is projected to skyrocket to 2,500 MW by 2030, nearly a tenfold increase[10].
However, the renewable sector has encountered challenges, particularly in the US. The current government’s policy leaning towards fossil fuels and advanced nuclear technology has resulted in a less enthusiastic approach towards renewables. This change in priority has considerably affected the sector, manifested by a nearly 50% replacement in the projected growth of US renewable power capacity since 2024[11].
Source: IEA (2025)[12]
The situation was further complicated by the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) in July 2025, which scaled back the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This has led to the acceleration of key tax credits’ phase-outs, imposition of strict domestic content and foreign entity restrictions, and withdrawal of incentives for EVs and residential solar. Consequently, 51 large-scale clean energy initiatives were cancelled, closed or scaled back between January and October 2025, leading to nearly $28.8 billion in lost private investment[13]. As a result, the US clean energy economy is currently experiencing significant instability, prompting increased investor caution.
Nevertheless, the sector’s underlying trends indicate a potential to satisfy future US energy needs. The World Resources Institute posits that the US transmission capacity might need to triple from its current levels, and interregional transfer capacity would need to quadruple. The rising number of data centres and AI-related electricity consumption, along with the necessary upgrades for grid infrastructure, are primary drivers. Despite policy uncertainties affecting some renewable and low-carbon technologies, the US Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, recognised geothermal energy as a strategic growth area in early 2025, for its potential to enhance energy security, stimulate economic development, and support AI-driven innovation. The Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that next-generation geothermal can economically supply 90 GW of power by 2050[14].
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