TL/DR –
Historically, Presidents’ Day weekend has been a prime time for snowstorms in Washington D.C., with some years seeing double-digit accumulations. A major storm is not likely this year, but a few inches of snow are expected Friday evening through Saturday morning. The predicted storm track, overnight timing, and temperatures are all factors that could affect the amount of snow accumulation, with a shift in the storm’s track north or south potentially bringing warmer air into the region or pushing heavier snow too far south, respectively.
Presidents’ Day Weekend Weather Update
As Presidents’ Day weekend approaches, historically, D.C. has seen significant snowfall. This year, however, predictions suggest a few inches of snow Friday evening into Saturday morning, rather than a major snowstorm.
Potential for Snow Accumulation
Several factors could favor snow accumulation, including the expected storm track and overnight timing. However, challenges remain, including whether temperatures will be sufficiently low for optimal snow accumulation.
Current Snowfall Forecast
Current predictions suggest snowfall ranging from a light coating to 3 or 4 inches across the region. Colder areas north and west of D.C. typically have a higher chance of significant snow accumulation. No models currently anticipate more than 6 inches of snow, with a 50% chance of at least an inch of snowfall.
Storm Timing and Temperatures
Precipitation is anticipated to arrive Friday evening between 8 p.m. and midnight, with temperatures falling through the mid-30s. Moderate snow could lower temperatures to 32 degrees or below, supporting snow accumulation. However, if the snow is intermittent or light, temperatures could remain slightly warmer, limiting potential accumulation and causing potential rain mix.
The storm is expected to pass by early Saturday morning. Most models show the storm’s low-pressure center passing through southern Virginia or northern North Carolina, which tends towards a snowier track for the D.C. area.
Storm Track and Accumulation Variables
A northward shift could bring warmer air, reducing snow accumulation and potentially causing the snow to mix with rain. Conversely, a shift south could lead to lighter precipitation and lower accumulation. The storm may also lack energy in the upper atmosphere, resulting in less accumulation.
As seen with Tuesday’s nor’easter, storm tracks can significantly shift even a day before. The upcoming storm, known as a “clipper,” is more predictable than nor’easters, so forecast confidence should increase by Thursday.
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