TL/DR –
In the U.S. Senate race in Arizona, Republican Kari Lake is trailing Democrat Ruben Gallego by about 50,000 votes. Lake, who has cast herself as “Trump in heels,” is currently in the running for drawing the least GOP support in the five presidential swing states that also had a competitive Senate contest. Despite her high popularity with GOP primary voters, Lake has demonstrated limited appeal to the broader electorate, highlighting that the “Trump brand” is not automatically transferable to candidates who claim the MAGA mantle.
Arizona’s 2024 Presidential Election Results: Trump’s Influence Not Transferrable to Kari Lake
Although the Arizona U.S. Senate race results are not yet final, the Republican candidate Kari Lake is trailing behind Democrat Ruben Gallego by around 50,000 votes, despite her attempts to cast herself as “Trump in heels.” Lake is currently in contention for drawing the least GOP support in the five presidential swing states that also had a competitive Senate contest.
Despite her popularity with GOP primary voters, Lake’s broader appeal has been limited. “The Trump brand is not automatically transferrable to candidates who claimed the MAGA mantle,” says Jessica Taylor, Senate editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Lake’s high negatives after the 2022 gubernatorial race and refusal to concede have contributed to this.
Out of the five presidential swing states that had competitive Senate races this year, only Nevada Republican Sam Brown rivals Lake for drawing a smaller share of Trump votes. As of Thursday afternoon, Brown trailed Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., by about 13,000 votes with more than 90% of ballots counted.
Lake’s political identity is centered around her support for Trump. This is evident in her campaign bus, which is covered with large photos of her with Trump. According to Google’s search trends, Lake commanded more traffic over the past year than the other four GOP Senate contenders combined. She also had a larger following on social media platform X.
Despite her support for Trump, Lake did not inherit his elective popularity in Arizona. She trailed in nearly all polling since Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., dropped out of the race in March and could never keep pace with Gallego’s fundraising. Lake received no support from allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, unlike Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s allies who poured tens of millions into the race to help Gallego.
It’s worth noting that in 2016, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., won his final term in office on the same night that Trump carried Arizona. With their feud already evident, McCain pulled in 9% more votes than Trump did. In 2020, Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., who was appointed to the seat after McCain’s 2018 death and her Senate loss months later, ran as a Trump supporter. She received 99% of his vote total, even though Trump and McSally both lost in the state.
Lake was clearly the most pro-Trump Senate candidate of the three and could fare the worst in winning the votes of his supporters. In March 2023, Jeff DeWit, then the chair of the Arizona Republican Party, met Lake at her home with a message. DeWit told her there were “very powerful people who want to keep you out” of the Senate race, according to a recording of their conversation leaked to British media 10 months later.
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