TL/DR –
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., has announced that she will not seek re-election, turning the Arizona Senate race into a two-way contest between Democrat Ruben Gallego and the Republican front-runner, former TV news anchor Kari Lake, or Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. This will be the fifth consecutive Senate race for Arizona, with both parties aiming to maintain their political bases while attracting independent voters. Following Sinema’s departure, Gallego’s campaign raised more than $1 million in the first 24 hours, while Lake’s campaign raised $330,000 at a Republican fundraiser in Washington, D.C.
Arizona’s Senate Race Intensifies Following Sinema’s Decision Not to Seek Re-Election
Arizona’s political landscape has been altered significantly following Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s decision not to seek a second term. The potential three-way Senate race has now been simplified into a more familiar two-party struggle.
The fifth consecutive Senate race will see Democrats and Republicans vying to secure their political bases while also appealing to independent voters. This shift away from speculating about Sinema’s potential run and voter sources has led to a clear partisan choice.
Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., is currently the only notable Democrat running, set to face either Republican front-runner, former TV news anchor Kari Lake, or Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.
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According to Jessica Taylor, Senate editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, the race is still viewed as a toss-up due to Arizona’s unpredictable nature in presidential and recent Senate races.
Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor with nonpartisan Inside Elections, sees the race as a highly competitive and costly Senate race, something Arizona has become accustomed to over the past three election cycles.
Political observers believe Sinema’s exit could benefit Gallego, as the Democratic party can now fully rally behind him.
The fundraising battle is heating up with both Lake and Gallego raising significant funds following Sinema’s retirement announcement.
Both candidates have praised Sinema for her work in the Senate, indicating a desire to win over the moderate voters Sinema might have attracted.
Gallego is currently a lesser-known quantity, which could potentially work in his favor compared to President Joe Biden, who is consistently trailing Trump in Arizona polls.
For Gallego, the challenge will be appealing to Arizona voters as a Democrat more to the left than either Sinema or Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz.
Lake’s campaign expenses could pose a concern, potentially leaving her with limited resources as the campaign reaches peak interest in the coming months.
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