TL/DR –
U.S. Senate candidate Ruben Gallego continues to lead in public polling against Republican Kari Lake for the Arizona seat, with a stable edge of about 50%-42% based on five polls released in the past week. Political websites Real Clear Politics and Inside Elections both rate the race as leaning Democratic. The Democrats and their allies plan to spend $25 million, compared with $7 million from Republicans and their allies in the Gallego-Lake race, according to AdImpact, a nonpartisan media research firm that tracks political advertising nationwide.
US Senate Candidate Ruben Gallego Maintains Lead Over Kari Lake
Despite a strong debate performance by Republican candidate Kari Lake, Ruben Gallego, a Democratic U.S. Senate candidate, remains ahead in public polls. Gallego’s polling advantage over Lake is stable at about 50%-42%, according to the nonpartisan politics website FiveThirtyEight and recent polls conducted by Real Clear Politics and The New York Times.
Gallego has consistently led in public polls of likely voters, with double-digit leads over Lake seen five times since late September. His dominance in the race has persisted since March when incumbent U.S. Senator Kyrsten Sinema declared she would not seek re-election.
Political forecast betting markets, including Polymarket and PredictIt, also predict a Gallego victory. The Arizona Democrat has an 87% chance of winning the race, according to Polymarket.
In terms of campaign spending, AdImpact, a nonpartisan media research firm, reported that the Democrats’ planned advertising spend in Arizona’s Senate race significantly outweighs that of the Republicans. Democrats and their allies plan to spend $25 million, compared with $7 million from Republicans and their allies.
Gallego’s continued lead in the polls and the planned Democratic advertising spend indicate a possible third straight Senate win for Arizona Democrats, following a 30-year string of Republican victories.
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