TL/DR –
President Donald Trump’s healthcare bill, if passed, would cut roughly $1.1 trillion in healthcare spending over the next decade, resulting in an estimated 11.8 million Americans losing their health insurance by 2034. The proposed bill includes the establishment of a new strict work requirement for certain Medicaid beneficiaries, projected to save about $325 billion over a decade, and a cap on provider taxes, resulting in a spending reduction of about $375 billion. The proposed reductions in Medicaid could threaten the survival of rural hospitals and other health centers that rely heavily on federal funding.
Trump’s Health Care Bill Could Leave Millions without Insurance
President Donald Trump’s proposed legislation is poised to radically remodel U.S. health care, potentially leaving millions of vulnerable citizens without health insurance and risking the viability of hospitals and centers that provide their care. The “big, beautiful bill” triumphed in the Senate with a 51-50 vote on Tuesday, after an exhaustive overnight session of amendment voting. Nevertheless, it still must confront the House, where Republicans hold a slim majority and some members have already expressed their objections to the bill.
Recent amendments to the legislation propose roughly $1.1 trillion in cuts to health-care spending over the next decade, as the Congressional Budget Office’s new estimates reveal. The majority of these cuts would come from Medicaid, the joint federal and state health insurance program for disabled and low-income Americans. Such reductions could severely impact rural hospitals that heavily depend on federal funding.
The current version of the bill is projected to result in 11.8 million people losing health insurance by 2034, primarily through loss of Medicaid coverage. However, additional implications could be even more substantial. Trump’s bill, alongside separate policy changes, could lead to an estimated 17 million people losing health insurance, according to Robin Rudowitz, director of the program on Medicaid and the uninsured at health policy research organization KFF.
Millions of Americans would lose coverage
The proposed cuts originate from multiple provisions, with the majority from two changes. One such change is the establishment of a new stringent national work requirement for certain Medicaid beneficiaries aged 19 to 64. This requirement won’t kick in until 2026, but is predicted to save about $325 billion over a decade according to the CBO. An analysis by the UC Berkeley Labor Center revealed that this requirement presents a particularly harsh barrier to older adults.
Hospitals, Health Centers, and Rural Patients at Risk
Another significant source of Medicaid savings originates from a provision to cap and gradually reduce the tax on hospitals, health plans, and other medical providers. These provider taxes help fund state Medicaid programs, with the federal government matching a portion of the state’s spending. Critics argue that capping provider taxes could critically endanger funding for rural hospitals, potentially forcing closures and job losses. Currently, rural patients already face higher rates of chronic illnesses and mortality due to limited access to care.
A Win for Pharma
Senate Republicans handed a win to drugmakers by reintroducing a provision into the bill that would exempt more medicines from the Inflation Reduction Act’s Medicare drug price negotiations. However, drug pricing group Patients For Affordable Drugs Now is calling for the House to remove this provision, labelling it a “completely unnecessary $5 billion giveaway” to the pharmaceutical industry.
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