TL/DR –
The 2024 U.S. presidential candidates, President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, face potential issues that have led to speculation about what would happen if either had to drop out of the race. Trump is facing several legal challenges, with over 90 charges in four indictments, while concerns about Biden’s age and mental capacities have been raised. If a candidate were to drop out, the procedure for selecting a replacement would depend on the timing, being more complicated before the national conventions and potentially leading to “free for all” scenarios.
What If a 2024 Presidential Candidate Has to Drop Out of the Race?
In the run up to the 2024 presidential election, one of the candidates is facing four criminal indictments, while the other is described as having “diminished capacities,” raising a key question: What happens if a candidate has to drop out of the race?
This potential rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, who is facing over 90 charges in four indictments and a number of civil lawsuits, would be a historic event. For Biden, his advanced age and a recent report about his alleged mishandling of classified documents have been a concern for voters.
How will the election proceed if either candidate has to drop out due to incapacitation, conviction, or imprisonment? The answer depends largely on when the withdrawal occurs.
Before National Conventions
If either candidate drops out before the national conventions, the path to finding a replacement becomes more complex. The national party conventions serve to officially select party nominees. Each party’s convention nominates a candidate based on the number of delegate votes they receive.
However, if a candidate drops out during primary season, other potential nominees may decide they want to try to win the nomination by gaining the remaining delegates. The timing of the withdrawal is crucial, as the later it occurs, the more the number of delegates a candidate will receive is fixed.
During National Conventions
If a candidate drops out between the last primary and their party’s nominating convention, things revert to traditional roots. Delegates would be “uncommitted” and need to decide the next nominee. Prospective party nominees would try to convince each state’s delegation for their support.
After National Conventions
If a nominated candidate drops out after the convention, the national party selects a replacement candidate. Both the Democratic and Republican national committees would hold special meetings to pick the next candidate.
After Election Day
If a candidate drops out between Election Day and Inauguration Day, the procedures vary depending on whether the electoral college has certified the election results. The responsibility to count votes would fall to Congress, and it is unclear how they would handle counting votes for a candidate who is no longer running.
What If Trump Is Convicted?
There are no rules that would legally bar Trump from serving a second term if he is convicted or serving jail time. However, the response of the voters and the legal implications of such a scenario remain unclear.
If Trump is convicted, it’s uncertain if the delegates bound to him are required to vote for him if he doesn’t withdraw from the race. State laws may allow delegates to be unbound from a candidate, but only if they withdraw from running.
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