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David Wolfson, pollster for gubernatorial candidate Jay Collins, defends the recent Republican Primary poll from criticisms. Wolfson says that decreases in undecided voters and increases in support for the leading candidates are expected trends as elections draw near. He also emphasizes that campaign polls usually differ from public polls due to the use of voter registration data and likely-voter models, instead of solely relying on self-reported voting intentions.
Jay Collins’ Pollster Defends Criticized Republican Primary Poll
The pollster for gubernatorial candidate Jay Collins, David Wolfson, is defending the campaign’s latest Republican Primary poll amid criticism. He argues that the poll results highlight a usual trend of voters rallying behind candidates as the Primary draws near.
Wolfson responded to criticism from Florida Politics’ Salt Shaker Test, asserting the analysis dismissed the survey without fully understanding the methodology and data behind it.
“The top lines show the evident movement; the undecided vote was cut in half — from over 30% to just 16%. This is what you expect to see as a Primary nears,” Wolfson pointed out. He also highlighted increased support for candidates Collins, Byron Donalds, and Paul Renner, while James Fishback maintained his 9% support level.
Wolfson noted the Salt Shaker Test overlooked the survey’s forced-choice question for undecided voters, a common practice in campaign polling. He explained that 40% of undecided voters leaned towards Collins and 30% towards Donalds. With these leaners accounted for, Collins’ support rose to 30%, while Donalds’ reached 46%.
In light of a recent Change Research poll, Wolfson stated that the minor difference in support for Collins aligns with the margin of error, painting a consistent view of the race. He added that campaign polling often diverges from public polling as it utilizes voter registration data and likely-voter models.
Regarding the methodology, Wolfson drew from his two-decade experience in Republican politics and campaign research. His extensive career includes teaching campaign management at the University of Florida, founding a polling firm, and working as a political consultant in Florida. He also teaches in Columbia University’s Political Analytics graduate program.
Wolfson emphasizes his reputation’s importance, stating he would not compromise it for any candidate or campaign. He asserts his commitment to reporting poll results, whether favorable or unfavorable. He also expressed hope for constructive debate on the data and methodology used in his polls.
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