TL/DR –
Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Donald J. Trump won Michigan’s primary elections but faced significant opposition: 13% of primary voters chose “uncommitted,” signaling disapproval of Biden, particularly regarding his Gaza policy, and Trump also saw tens of thousands vote against him. The “uncommitted” movement is expected to spread to other states and cities with high concentrations of Arab Americans or large college towns where voters are dissatisfied with American support for Israel. Despite these developments, Trump maintains his favor to become the Republican nominee, with competitor Nikki Haley consistently losing against him in primaries.
Biden and Trump Take Michigan Primaries, Highlighting Political Coalition Fragility
Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Donald J. Trump emerged victorious in Michigan’s primary elections on Tuesday, but the results spotlight the vulnerability of their political coalitions in a vital state. Both Biden and Trump face perilous implications from the loss of any fragment of their support. Biden’s victory in Michigan came by around 150,000 votes in 2020, while Trump managed a win in 2016 by a narrow margin of 11,000 votes. The Tuesday primaries held greater significance as Michigan is the first top general-election battleground to have its primary in 2024.
‘Uncommitted’ Biden Supporters Yield Influence
A campaign encouraging Democrats to vote “uncommitted” to apply pressure on Biden to demand an unconditional cease-fire in Gaza began three weeks ago. Since then, top White House officials have expressed regrets over their crisis response, with Biden himself calling Israel’s military action “over the top.” The strength of this “uncommitted” movement surprised his campaign, which hadn’t predicted strong anti-Biden sentiment among Michigan Democrats. Nonetheless, Biden managed 81 percent of the votes, while “uncommitted” secured 13 percent.
Biden Faced with Clear Campaign Challenges
The “uncommitted” movement is likely to spread to other states, posing challenges for the Biden campaign in slowing any perceived momentum. As long as the Gaza conflict persists and the USA continues aid to Israel, Biden faces difficulty in placating voters angered by the increasing Palestinian death toll.
Challenges Ahead for Both Front-runners
Despite being the favorites for their respective parties, Donald Trump and Joe Biden faced significant opposition in the Tuesday primaries, indicating potential difficulties in forming a winning coalition. Trump’s long-standing adversary Haley has seen her share of the Republican electorate decrease from New Hampshire to South Carolina to Michigan. On the other hand, Biden sailed through his first two primaries before facing resistance from a group of Arab American political operatives in Michigan.
College Towns: A Critical Focus for Biden
Biden’s performance in the college towns Ann Arbor and East Lansing, with “uncommitted” earning 19 and 15 percent of the votes respectively, is a cause for concern for his campaign. Other battleground states, with college towns comprising young, progressive voters angered by American support for Israel, present a potential threat for Biden in the general elections.
Nikki Haley Continues Fight Against Trump
Trump continued his winning trend while Nikki Haley suffered another loss in the Michigan primary. Regardless, Haley’s campaign marches forward with upcoming rallies and fundraisers planned in seven states and Washington, D.C before Super Tuesday on March 5. Despite her campaign terming her vote share as a warning sign for Trump in November, it could potentially spell foreboding for her own candidacy.
Reporting contributions by Nicholas Nehamas from Dearborn, Mich., and Alyce McFadden from New York.
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