Tracking Election Results: Key States to Watch Like a Pro
TL/DR –
The article discusses the factors that affect how votes are counted and reported on election night in the United States, including the practice of counting mail-in votes first, which often favors Democratic candidates. The article cites a number of examples from different states, including Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, where early results can create a “blue mirage” that fades as more votes are counted. It also discusses the impact of changes to voting laws and administration processes, as well as the influence of voter behavior and geography.
Understanding election night results in the United States can be likened to solving a jigsaw puzzle with only one piece revealed at a time. Interpreting vote totals reported from thousands of counties can challenging, especially discerning when these results will project the overall outcome.
The initial report may show a considerable lead for a candidate, but that lead might wane or widen depending on various factors. A single vote update from a populous city could sometimes even confirm the winner while a large number of votes are yet to be counted. The concept of a “mirage” versus a real outcome often becomes a point of debate.
Past elections serve as a guide, indicating that mail-in votes often tilt towards Democrats, with certain states reporting these votes first, creating a “blue mirage”. It shows Republicans can lose urban areas overwhelmingly yet still win the election. However, unexpected alterations to the state administration process or significant shifts in voter behavior can disrupt these patterns.
Florida
Florida often provides the first indication of how election night is unfolding, with results trickling in from 7 p.m. EST. Florida law mandates each county to report its early and absentee ballots first, which are usually in favor of Democrats. Thus, the first reported results often seem favorable for Democratic candidates until Election Day votes kick in, swinging the results towards Republicans.
Virginia
In Virginia, the sequence of events tends to vary, with no strict rules governing how counties should release results. Republicans typically lead early returns until big cities and northern Virginia suburbs report their results, which could take hours.
Georgia
Georgia allows absentee ballot counting on Election Day itself. The first reports are usually favorable to Democrats, but then they could take hours before the rest of the state starts sending in results.
Ohio
In Ohio, pre-Election Day votes, including mail-in votes that lean towards Democrats, are released at the beginning of election night. As Election Day votes trickle in, Republicans start gaining and often end up victorious.
North Carolina
North Carolina typically counts nearly all its ballots on election night. The first reports usually include results of mail ballots, followed by early in-person votes and finally, ballots cast on Election Day.
Pennsylvania
Initial vote updates in Pennsylvania mostly consist of mail-in ballots, giving Democrats an early advantage. As more Election Day votes and votes from rural areas are counted, the gap starts to close.
Wisconsin
Each city in Wisconsin chooses how to report its results. Some merge mail-in ballots with Election Day votes while others, such as Milwaukee, release them separately, adding unpredictability to the outcome.
Michigan
Michigan, similar to Wisconsin, lacks a universal pattern for when counties report their mail ballots. Local geography often serves as a better indicator of a race’s direction than vote type.
Arizona
Arizona doesn’t report votes until an hour after polls close. The first update usually includes about half of the state’s total votes and often leans Democratic. However, the subsequent counting process can be more complex than in other states.
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