Trump Slows, But Doesn’t Halt, US Greenhouse Gas Reductions
TL/DR –
The Rhodium Group predicts that US greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by only 26-35% over the next decade, a significantly slower rate than previously projected due to a shift in energy and climate policy under the Trump administration. The Trump administration has faced criticism for creating obstacles to wind and solar energy growth and has proposed rescinding the landmark 2009 finding that allowed the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. Despite these setbacks, the Rhodium Group’s forecast still predicts a substantial role for renewable energy sources in the US, with wind, solar, and related energy storage projects making up 95% of new electricity generation capacity.
US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecast Hit by Policy Shift under Trump Administration
The latest projections for greenhouse gas emissions in the United States have been significantly influenced by the policies of President Donald Trump. The anticipated reduction in harmful emissions is expected to decelerate over the coming decade, spelling setbacks for the global fight against climate change.
Analyst firm Rhodium Group had, last year, projected a drop of up to 56% in US greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, based on existing climate policies. The updated forecast, however, indicates a considerable slowdown. According to a report by Rhodium Group released today, the drastic switch in energy and climate policy during the first seven months of the Trump administration could result in just a 26-35% reduction in emissions over the next decade, compared to 2005 levels.
The revised prediction is markedly below the required action to curb the rise in global temperatures—an issue that is already causing more extreme weather and climate-related disasters across the US. This pessimistic outlook is a result of the Trump administration’s obstacles to wind and solar energy in the US, coupled with extensive efforts to eradicate federal environmental protections.
Biden’s Climate Goals vs. Trump’s Energy Policies
Just a year ago in 2024, former President Joe Biden laid out a plan to cut US greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50 percent during this decade, in line with the Paris climate agreement. His Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, with its generous tax incentives for carbon-free energy and electric vehicles, was projected to achieve about 40 percent of this goal by 2030. Additionally, Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) introduced policies to further restrict pollutions from power plants and transportation.
Contrastingly, the EPA under President Trump, has proposed to rescind a pivotal 2009 finding which allowed the agency to regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act, given their threat to public health.
Fossil Fuel Industry Influence and the State of Renewables
Trump, who received significant campaign contributions from the fossil fuel industry, appointed former oil and gas executive, Chris Wright, as the head of the Department of Energy. Recently, Wright labeled the effort to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century—a necessity according to research, as a “colossal train wreck” and a “monstrous human impoverishment program”.
Despite the change in political leadership and policy direction, the Rhodium Group’s forecast suggests that renewables are unlikely to disappear. Driven by increasing electricity demand from data centers, AI, and electric vehicles, wind and solar energy, along with related storage projects, make up an impressive 95 percent of new electricity generation capacity. However, the pace of emissions reduction is expected to slow if the Trump administration continues to prioritize fossil fuels.
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