Trump dismantles final piece of Biden’s climate plan

Coal’s Impact on Global Warming and the Political Back-and-Forth in the United States

Of the world’s primary energy sources, coal is the dirtiest, responsible for nearly half of cumulative global carbon emissions since the start of the industrial era. This figure matches the combined emissions from oil and gas. Moreover, coal produces more carbon dioxide per energy unit compared to oil or gas. Climate specialists unanimously concur that the most impactful move the world can make to curb global warming is to eliminate coal power.

In the past two decades, the United States has wavered on the decision of whether the federal government should hasten the phase-out of coal. When President Barack Obama couldn’t implement a carbon tax through Congress, his administration developed the “Clean Power Plan”. This plan was designed to compel electric utilities to reduce their emissions by transitioning away from coal. However, this rule was nullified during President Donald Trump’s first term, and the Supreme Court affirmed that the president could not unilaterally compel utilities to cease using coal.

The Biden Administration’s Approach and Repercussions of Its Repeal

Instead of mandating utilities to give up coal, the Biden administration attempted to circumvent the Supreme Court ruling in its 2024 policy. This rule offered utilities two options: retire their coal plants sometime in the 2030s or equip these plants with machinery that would capture the majority of carbon dioxide emitted from their smokestacks. Both options would result in a substantial reduction in carbon emissions from the power sector.

The Trump administration is currently repealing this rule, with the Environmental Protection Agency announcing plans to do away with all federal regulations for carbon emissions from the electricity sector, effectively permitting utilities to heat the planet without any restrictions. This argument was used earlier this year to justify the repeal of climate regulations on motor vehicles, stating that climate change is uncertain and that the repeal would reduce power bills for consumers.

The EPA chief during Trump’s administration, Lee Zeldin, stated that the Obama and Biden administrations waged a war on coal for over 15 years to obliterate affordable and reliable energy. This repeal significantly hinders the federal government’s efforts to move the power sector away from coal. However, the persistent policy reversals between Democratic and Republican administrations have not significantly expedited the decarbonization of the power sector.

The Role of Natural Gas and the Impact on Public Health

Despite this, coal power in the United States has been steadily declining over the past twenty years. This trend can be largely attributed to the shale fracking boom, which has made it more cost-effective for utilities to replace coal plants with gas plants. Though natural gas does contribute to global warming, it does so at a slower rate compared to coal and this switch has led to a nearly 50% reduction in overall power sector emissions in the U.S.

However, the Biden rule’s repeal will likely delay this phase-out process and have significant repercussions on the nation’s public health. Coal plants also emit harmful toxins such as mercury and particulate matter, causing premature deaths globally. The Biden administration had estimated that by 2035, the rule would have prevented hundreds of thousands of asthma flare-ups, hundreds of emergency room visits, and over 1,200 premature deaths.

The Influence of AI and the Future of Coal

The surge in artificial intelligence (AI) is also slowing the phase-out of coal. The increasing power demand from data centers has revived the demand for coal plants and has prompted many utilities to postpone the retirement date for their existing coal assets. However, a future president committed to climate change action will face the same challenge as Obama: how to expedite the phase-out of coal, a dying but not yet dead source of energy?

As noted by Kenneth Gillingham, an environmental economics professor at Yale University, the nation’s coal plants are aging, and it may be more feasible for utilities to replace them with gas or other fuels than repair them. “We have more electricity demand than we did before, which is, on the margins, going to make it easier for a coal plant to stay on,” said Gillingham. “But the trend is pretty clear, and you can only fight markets so much.”