TL/DR –
The final national NBC News poll of the 2024 presidential campaign reveals a closely contested race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, each receiving support from 49% of registered voters. Distinct factors have contributed to each candidate’s performance, including rising Democratic enthusiasm, a lead on the abortion issue, and support for the middle class aiding Harris, while a belief by two-thirds of voters that the nation is on the wrong track, a favorable view of Trump’s past presidency, and his advantage on the economy and cost of living are bolstering Trump’s campaign. The poll also highlights a significant gender gap, with women predominantly supporting Harris (57%-41%) and men mainly backing Trump (58%-40%).
Final NBC News Poll shows neck-to-neck race between Harris and Trump
The last 2024 presidential campaign NBC News poll reveals a tight race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. The poll indicates Harris and Trump both drawing support from 49% of registered voters, leaving a mere 2% of voters undecided.
Key factors propelling Harris include rising Democratic enthusiasm, and a 20-point lead over Trump on abortion issue. For Trump, a strong belief among voters that the nation is headed in the wrong direction and his favorable presidency assessment compared to Joe Biden’s current performance boosts his chances.
Nationwide polarization influencing the contest
The poll also reflects the nation’s high polarization, exemplified by a gender gap of over 30 points differentiating the voting preferences of men and women. Despite the election outcome, 60% of voters expect the country to remain divided. The competition remains largely stable since last month, showing the solidity of the voters’ choices.
“We’ve grown apart, and we’ve picked our corner. Each side is as locked down as it gets, and they don’t budge or move,” says Bill McInturff, Republican pollster with Public Opinion Strategies.
Expanded ballot shows minor changes
On an expanded ballot incorporating third-party candidates, Trump is at 47% while Harris at 46% with 7% backing other candidates or undecided. These figures mirror October’s results.
Possible turnout scenarios effect on poll results
The poll provides insights on different turnout scenarios. A slightly favorable environment for Republicans could see Trump leading Harris by 2 points, 50%-48%. Conversely, a more favorable turnout for Democrats could result in Harris leading Trump by 3 points, 50%-47%. All these outcomes fall within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
However, key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will ultimately decide the presidential contest. The latest state polls reveal close margins, adding to the uncertainty of the final outcome.
Candidates’ performance among different demographic groups
Harris has notable advantages over Trump among Black voters (87%-9%), younger voters aged under 30 years (57%-41%), and white voters with college degrees (55%-43%). Trump leads among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%) and white voters without college degrees (64%-34%).
Harris has an 8-point advantage among independent voters, 51%-43%. However, she’s ahead by just 9 points among Latino voters, 53%-44%, with a larger margin of error given the sample size.
Candidates’ stance on key issues
Harris maintains a significant advantage on the issue of abortion and looks out better for the middle class. Trump however, holds double-digit leads on the economy and cost of living, and a 25-point edge on securing the border and controlling immigration.
When it comes to the battle for Congress, 47% of voters prefer Democrats control Congress, while 46% want Republicans in charge.
The NBC News poll, conducted Oct. 30 to Nov. 2 among 1,000 registered voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
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