Potential Surge in Summer Immigration Could Heighten Tensions in U.S. Politics; Brazil Gambles on Soy
TL/DR –
Migration to the U.S. is expected to rise in the summer, which will potentially fuel political debates in the run-up to the presidential election, with 28% of Americans citing it as the nation’s greatest challenge. Despite falling numbers of arrivals at the U.S. southern border in January and February 2024, there are expectations of a summer uptick driven by factors such as unrest in Cuba, Haiti, and Venezuela, and the backlog of three million asylum cases. In Brazil, soy exports, which contributed $70 billion—40 percent of total export revenue—to the country’s GDP in 2023 face challenges due to climate change and the government’s ambitious deforestation and carbon neutrality targets.
US Immigration Top Political Issue as Summer Migration Resurgence Expected
As the US presidential election nears, immigration tops voters’ concerns, according to a February 2024 Gallup poll. Despite reduced arrivals at the southern border earlier this year, officials anticipate a summertime surge. Unrest in Cuba, chaos in Haiti, and authoritarian repression in Venezuela are driving migrants northwards, exacerbating the Biden administration’s three million case backlog.
The Biden administration’s attempts to manage the situation have been hampered by Congress’s failure to pass a bipartisan border security bill, leaving them without additional resources. Despite increases in asylum claims processing, the administration struggles to keep pace with the consistent influx of migrants. Achieving border security requires investment and bipartisan support, currently proving elusive.
Brazil’s Economic Dependence on Soy amidst Climate and Policy Challenges
Soy fuels Brazil’s economy, contributing nearly $70 billion in exports. However, climate change and government greenhouse gas reduction ambitions pose threats to this profitable crop’s future.
Climate events related to El Niño could potentially reduce 2024 soy harvests by 5 percent. In addition, Brazil’s commitment to curtailing deforestation and reducing carbon emissions necessitates a reduction in agribusiness land use, implying less soy cultivation.
Yet, despite these challenges, the strong agribusiness lobby may maintain soy production levels. The lobby holds significant sway in Brazil’s congress and has effectively excluded unprocessed agricultural goods from emissions-trading program proposals. Deforestation related to soy production remains unchecked, evidenced by a 40 percent deforestation increase in the Cerrado region during President Lula’s first year in office.
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United States,
Immigration and Migration,
Joe Biden,
Election 2024,
Brazil
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