US Begins Troop Drawdown in Syria Amid Shifting Security Landscape
TL/DR –
The United States is reducing the number of troops in northeastern Syria from 2,000 to about 1,400, closing three of its eight bases in response to the shift in the security environment since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. The Kurdish-led militia that controls northeastern Syria has now agreed to merge with the country’s new government, which includes integrating all civil and military institutions by the end of the year. Despite these changes, challenges remain, including a resurgent Islamic State and possible further U.S. troop cuts, which some analysts believe could threaten stability.
US Begins Troop Reduction in Northeastern Syria Following Assad’s Downfall
The US has initiated the retreat of hundreds of soldiers from northeastern Syria, following President Bashar al-Assad’s downfall in December. This move reflects the country’s altered security environment but brings potential risks. The reduction of troops to approximately 1,400 from 2,000 involves the closure of three small operating bases, according to senior US officials.
Future Reductions Based on Assessment and Presidential Discretion
In 60 days, American commanders will evaluate the possibility of making further cuts. Contrarily, President Trump has expressed skepticism about maintaining any US troops in Syria. The current reduction strategy is based on ground commanders’ recommendations, which received approval from the Pentagon and its Central Command.
Existential Threats and Political Breakthroughs
Despite the continued threat of the Islamic State, Assad’s downfall has mitigated other risks in Syria. A major turning point occurred when the Kurdish-led militia in northeastern Syria agreed to merge with the new government last month. This agreement entails the integration of all civil and military institutions into the new Syrian state by year’s end.
American Support to S.D.F. Amidst ISIS Threats
Despite reduction, the remaining American troops continue to provide counterterrorism assistance to the S.D.F. and operate detention camps. The United States previously increased troop deployment to 2,000 on ground in Syria due to a growing threat from ISIS and Iran-backed militias.
Rise in ISIS Attacks and Death of its Leader
ISIS has ramped up its attacks in Syria this year with 294 claimed attacks in 2024, nearly triple the number from previous year. Amidst this chaos, a senior ISIS leader was killed in an American drone strike. However, the overall ISIS threat remains as their attack frequency has consistently increased over the past few months.
US Hopes for Strong Syrian Partner Against ISIS
The US hopes for the new Syrian government to become a reliable ally against a resurgent ISIS. Preliminary signs have been promising, with the government successfully disrupting eight ISIS plots based on US-provided intelligence. However, potential future US troop cuts might jeopardize this transition.
Possibility of Further US Troop Cuts
Reports from NBC News and Al-Monitor suggest that a broader review of Syria policy might prepare the ground for halving US forces or complete withdrawal. This comes despite several key Middle East policy positions remaining vacant in the White House, State Department, and Pentagon.
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