Busse Opens Wide Lead in Montana’s Western District Democratic Primary as Affordability, Health Care Dominate Race

With early voting set to begin in May ahead of the June 2 primary, a new independent poll shows Ryan Busse holding a commanding 15-point lead over his nearest rival in the Democratic primary for Montana’s 1st Congressional District — a seat that opened up when Republican incumbent Ryan Zinke announced his retirement in early March.

The poll places Busse well ahead of Russ Cleveland, with the remaining candidates — Samuel Forstag and Matt Rains — trailing further behind. Analysts attribute Busse’s strong position in part to the name recognition he built during his 2024 gubernatorial campaign, in which he captured more than 42 percent of the vote in the counties that now make up the western district.

The Issues Driving the Race

Affordability Front and Center

Busse has made economic fairness a central pillar of his pitch to voters, calling for a tax system that requires “billionaire hedge fund managers to pay at least as much as fishing guides, waitresses, and snowplow drivers.” He has criticized what he calls a lobbyist-written tax code that taxes labor at higher rates than wealth, and has pledged not to vote for any legislation that increases wealth disparity.

In a district where housing costs have surged and wages have struggled to keep pace, the message has found an audience. Busse has framed the affordability crisis not as an abstract policy debate but as a direct consequence of choices made — and not made — by the current congressional delegation.

Health Care and Medicaid Under Pressure

Health care has emerged as another defining issue in the race. Busse has called for universal health coverage and has sharply criticized Republican efforts that he says have increased Affordable Care Act costs for tens of thousands of Montanans while “drastically weakening Medicaid.”

The stakes are tangible for rural communities across the district. Federal Medicaid cuts are already forcing states to reckon with the potential closure of rural hospitals, and Montana is no exception. Busse has warned that the damage will fall disproportionately on Native communities and small towns that depend on Medicaid-funded facilities as their only source of care.

A recent survey found that Montana voters overwhelmingly view cost as a major barrier to accessing mental health care — an issue that compounds the broader affordability squeeze families are already feeling.

Data Centers: A New Flashpoint

Perhaps the most Montana-specific issue shaping the race is the rapid push to build data centers across the state. At least 11 entities are in talks with NorthWestern Energy about data center development, and planned facilities statewide are expected to require roughly 1,000 megawatts of power — a figure that would represent a massive increase in energy demand.

Busse has urged voters to approach data center proposals with skepticism. “The reason data centers are rushing here is because they believe we have cheap power, open land, and insufficient regulation to stop them from moving fast,” he said at a candidate forum in Butte. He has warned that the AI-driven facilities could drive up electricity rates for existing residents while delivering few permanent jobs — and that a major product of those centers, artificial intelligence, “is designed to put human labor out of work.”

The issue cuts across partisan lines, with rural communities worried about rate hikes and water consumption regardless of political affiliation.

The Road to June

Zinke’s surprise retirement announcement, which he attributed to lingering injuries from his Navy SEAL career, scrambled the race just days before candidate filing closed. On the Republican side, conservative talk radio host Aaron Flint and former state legislator Al Olszewski are among those who jumped in.

For Democrats, the open seat has transformed a longshot challenge into a genuine pickup opportunity. National Democrats have publicly identified the district as competitive, and Busse’s polling lead suggests he enters the final stretch as the frontrunner — though Cleveland, Forstag, and Rains each bring distinct strengths that could reshape the race as early ballots arrive next month.

What all four candidates agree on is the central argument: that western Montanans need a representative who will fight for lower costs, protect rural health care, and hold powerful interests accountable.