Evaluating the State of Play at the Start of 2024
TL/DR –
The US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen anticipates robust economic growth in 2023, despite predictions otherwise, expecting new business startups to continue at record pace, unemployment rates to fall below 4%, and improvements in middle-income households’ wealth and purchasing power. Four economic measures – the American Rescue Plan, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the CHIPS and Science Act – have resulted in the production of more goods and services in the American economy and wage gains outpacing inflation. However, national debt continues to be a significant issue, and the escalating cyberattacks and misinformation campaigns from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (collectively referred to as CRINK) remain a concern.
Reviewing America’s Political, Economic, and Social Developments
In the early stages of 2023, it is essential to reflect on the previous year’s political, economic, and social changes in America. Despite recession forecasts for 2023, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that Federal Reserve actions lowered inflation from 9.1% in 2022 to 3.1%. She also mentioned a steady economic growth and increased wealth for middle-income households than pre-pandemic levels.
Research shows that several economic actions significantly benefited Americans: the American Rescue Plan, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Inflation Reduction Act, and CHIPS and Science Act. These led to increased goods and services production and significant wage gains expected to increase further in 2024.
The previous year witnessed a falling crime rate, a decrease in US carbon emissions, and a significant boost in the three major stock indexes, enhancing retirement savings for over 150 million Americans. The financial well-being of many was improved as savings and money market accounts offered around a 5% return.
The boom in cleaner energy continues, with the cost of battery-making metals expected to remain low in 2024. Additionally, strong oil production growth in North America will likely maintain low gasoline prices in 2024. However, the national debt remains a significant concern, with a steady increase during both Donald Trump’s presidency and Joe Biden’s term.
The danger from CRINK (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) continues as these countries show no signs of reducing cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns. Their explicit and implicit war against Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel, and the United States will likely persist, necessitating strong opposition from the U.S. President.
The Supreme Court’s Role in Shaping America’s Future
As the Supreme Court returns to session, Americans hope for clarity on several issues, including the definition of presidential immunity, states’ control of election processes, and whether the Jan. 6 attack was an insurrection. After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, Pew Research Center revealed that 62% of Americans support pro-choice rights. This issue, along with immigration reform, will implicitly be on the Nov. 5 ballot.
Despite the challenge of reaching bipartisan agreements on immigration, the number of immigration judges has increased under President Biden. However, it remains to be seen if these changes will resolve the ongoing migrant issue. With 98% of Americans being descendants of immigrants, it is disheartening that the benefits of immigration are questioned, and a resolution to this issue remains elusive.
After Nov. 5, the political identity of America – whether it remains a democracy or becomes a populist authoritarian dictatorship – will be clearer. There are numerous issues to be resolved in 2024, and whether we are ready or not, the new year is here.
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