Michigan Judge Temporarily Halts Betting on Kalshi During World Cup

Last updated Jul 30, 2026

Retail Bettors and Prediction Market Platforms: A Lucrative Prospect for Traders

Written by Justina Lee and Carolyn Silverman

Retail bettors are embracing long-shot multi-leg bets on prediction-market platforms such as Kalshi, creating a golden opportunity for savvy traders willing to take the other side.

The Rise of Combo Bets

These combo wagers, known in sports gambling as parlays, bundle multiple outcomes into a single bet. A popular example during the World Cup final was Spain leading at halftime, Argentina winning the match, and either team scoring at least two first-half goals. Despite an implied probability of only 2.7% at kickoff, combo bets have shown rapid growth in the prediction-market world, accounting for 36% of the contracts traded on Kalshi this month.

The Dangers of Combo Bets

However, these bets have proven risky for ordinary customers. Bettors on Kalshi’s platform have lost a net $294 million on its combos since the start of the year, excluding fees. Traditionally, losses on such wagers were largely absorbed by sportsbooks, where parlays have been among the industry’s most profitable products. Now, with the advent of prediction markets offering similar trades on their platforms, Wall Street firms and other algorithmic traders are stepping in as counterparties.

A Lucrative Opportunity for Traders

One such trader is Leonidas Mastrokostas, a 26-year-old Jersey City resident who learned about the opportunity while working at FanDuel, a leading sportsbook. Now operating independently, Mastrokostas reports seven-figure monthly earnings by betting against the risk-taking instincts of regular gamblers on Kalshi.

Market Makers and Takers

In essence, the prediction market is divided into market takers who accept the displayed price and market makers who set the price. They often do this with automated systems which most ordinary customers cannot build. Nearly all combo volumes currently involve sports games, though Kalshi also allows customers to include bets on cryptocurrency prices, adding another dimension to the betting climate.

The Appeal and Pitfalls of Parlays

Parlays often spell danger for average bettors, due to the compounding nature of low probabilities, making it challenging to ascertain if a bet is priced fairly. On average, Kalshi combos were priced at a 9% chance of resolving to yes compared to 43% for non-parlay markets. The true odds on combos are often even lower, making them a lucrative prospect for traders.

The Future of Combo Bets

The emergence and growing popularity of these new betting products could potentially lead to issues for the exchanges, as customers could quickly deplete their funds and stop using the platforms. Despite this, prediction markets continue to thrive, with platforms like Polymarket joining Kalshi in offering multi-leg wagers and incentivizing trading through attractive campaigns.

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Explore the world of combo bets on prediction markets like Kalshi, and find out why they’re a golden opportunity for savvy traders. Learn about their rise, risks, and potential future.

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Combo Bets on Prediction Markets: A Goldmine for Traders