Political turbulence threatens some climate policies, spares others.
TL/DR –
The Canadian climate movement is looking to policies that could endure a potential electoral blowout, such as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which saw success due to its strategic investment in green assets. The Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab notes that 70% of the IRA’s investment was in Republican districts with lower wages and education levels, with this voter base potentially forming a strong lobby against attempts at repeal. It’s suggested that public investment in specific projects can secure support for climate action, creating jobs and lowering costs of living, with Canadian carbon pricing potentially fragile due to its incremental, long-term implementation and abstract benefits.
Climate Policy’s Electoral Success Lies in Legislation Similar to the US Inflation Reduction Act
As the Canadian climate movement looks at the U.S. federal election results and anticipates Canada’s own elections, focus should be on policies resilient to political upheaval. Legislation like the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is ideal, having gained support from unlikely Republican officials by investing in green assets which benefit multiple constituencies.
The Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab notes that over 70% of the IRA’s investment was in Republican districts with lower wages and education levels. This, along with the support of various business associations, could form a lobby powerful enough to resist attempts at policy repeal. Despite the Trump administration’s opposition to these investments, it’s likely that they will be harder to rescind than to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
Public Investment, Labour and Climate Alliances: A Promising Path for Climate Action
Public investment and alliances between labour and climate movements may be our best hope for ensuring climate action survives future political storms. According to University of Toronto Professor Jessica Green, the best political strategy is to increase the number of people directly benefitting from climate policy by implementing pro-worker climate policies.
Electoral success requires understanding the need for building political coalitions around specific projects that promise more jobs, public goods, lower costs of living and avoid diffuse benefits. Those benefitting directly will resist any rollback of climate action.
Canadian Carbon Pricing: A Fragile Climate Policy
Canadian carbon pricing, despite substantial rebates, has struggled politically due to its incremental, long-term implementation. Focused political support sways voters more effectively than abstract benefits. If a federal government change threatens the carbon tax, green industrial policy may succeed where it previously failed.
A Clean Energy Canada report states that capping emissions will create around 700,000 more green jobs by 2050. However, climate policy needs public investment support to defend these gains.”
Fossil Fuel Defenders vs. Climate Action
Ensuring affordability in worker-led climate policy thwarts fossil fuel proponents, who will abandon assets and workers once projects lose economic viability. Public investments in transit, housing, and energy can prevent such an outcome.
While the IRA offers a lesson, it’s not the perfect model for Canadians. Its focus on de-risking private investments meant many projects didn’t register with American voters as IRA-related. Nonetheless, its resilience compared to Canada’s carbon tax is largely due to its well-executed political strategy.
Ensuring the Long-term Success of Canadian Climate Policy
Canadian climate policy must be popular and resilient to survive in the long run. This can be achieved by investing in visible and tangible public goods.
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