TL/DR –
The Republican Party in Arizona is witnessing a decline in its political hold over the state. Eight years ago, the party held every statewide office, but currently, they hold only two. A combination of factors including dwindling party registration, internal disputes, and poor fundraising efforts have contributed to the party’s decline.
The Downfall of the GOP in Arizona
Eight years ago, Republicans dominated Arizona politics, holding every statewide office. Today, they only control two. The state GOP’s changing fortunes have led some to question whether they are on an electoral decline.
Recent updates to Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” illustrate this shift. Sabato, a national pollster, moved the race for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic”. He also downgraded Rep. Juan Ciscomani’s reelection bid from “leans Republican” to “toss-up”.
Recent polls show U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego leading likely nominee Kari Lake by 5 percentage points in the U.S. Senate race.
Arizona Republican Party’s Funding Woes
The Crystal Ball’s changes reflect more than just polling data. They consider Arizona’s controversial abortion debate and candidate fundraising. Gallego holds a 4-to-1 advantage over Lake in cash on hand.
The Republican Party of Arizona ended the last quarter with only $160,000 on balance, while the Arizona Democrats boasted close to $1.5 million.
The GOP’s struggles extend beyond Arizona. Nationwide, the Republican National Committee had its lowest fundraising numbers in a decade last year.
Arizona GOP Loses Voter Registration Lead
The Arizona GOP’s issues are not limited to funding. They also suffer from declining party registration. Although Republicans reclaimed the lead this month, they slipped to second place behind independents last summer.
These challenges prompt the question: Do Republicans in Arizona still want to win?
The Appeal of Losing
Interestingly, losing elections can be more profitable for some candidates. They can leverage defeat into appearances at high-profile events, legal funds, and lucrative book deals.
Winning candidates, in contrast, often face accusations of ideological impurity from their party’s base. As a result, they may question whether the modest state government salary is worth the hassle.
Returning to the Basics
If Arizona Republicans hope to regain their former glory, they need to refocus on the basics: registering voters, raising funds, and ending internal disputes.
Ending Purity Tests and Focusing on Winning
After a series of internal strife between different factions within the party, the GOP must now focus on winning elections rather than purity tests. Arizona voters are more interested in sound economic policies, law and order, and robust education policies than fringe ideologies.
Unless the state party can shift its focus, its decline may continue, leading some to question whether they would prefer political success or a profitable book deal.
—
Read More US Media News