TL/DR –
Arizona is set to be a key battleground in the upcoming US elections, with the control of the presidency, the US Senate and the House of Representatives potentially being decided by a margin of just 10,000 votes in the state. President Joe Biden narrowly won Arizona in 2020 and recent polls have consistently shown him trailing former President Donald Trump. Furthermore, the state’s U.S. Senate race and House races are also highly competitive, with the outcomes potentially being influenced by issues such as border security, inflation, and the potential entry of third-party candidates.
Arizona’s Presidential Election Outlook for Upcoming Year
As a presidential election year unfolds, Arizona, a key battleground state, could again decide the balance of power in Washington. With the Democrats’ recent successes in Arizona’s federal races, the forthcoming presidential, U.S. Senate, and House races will test the state’s partisan loyalties.
“The control of the presidency, the control of the United States Senate, the control of the United States House of Representatives… that all is going to be decided, potentially, by a margin of just 10,000 votes in Arizona,” warns Tony Cani, a seasoned Democratic strategist in Arizona.
President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in Arizona was by under 11,000 votes, the smallest margin in the country. However, numerous polls have consistently shown him lagging behind former President Donald Trump, the GOP front-runner, in Arizona.
The issue of border security has again been thrust into the national spotlight, an Arizona-centric issue that often energizes Republicans and disheartens potential young, often Hispanic Democrat-leaning voters. Without this group, Biden and other Democrats must rely heavily on independents and disillusioned Republicans.
Arizona’s economic woes during the pandemic, including soaring gas, food, and housing prices, have left many residents skeptical about the near-term prospects. Third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or perhaps former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., could add another layer of complexity to winning Arizona.
U.S. Senate Race and House Elections
The U.S. Senate race and House elections in Arizona also present an uncertain landscape. US Senator Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., is yet to officially announce if she will seek another six-year term. Sinema’s decision could have significant implications for other candidates in the race, such as U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., and Kari Lake, a former Phoenix TV broadcaster and failed gubernatorial candidate, who is widely seen as the leading contender for the Republicans and enjoys Trump’s endorsement.
Meanwhile, David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani, two of the most vulnerable sitting House Republicans in the country, are facing tough challenges. Schweikert, a decade-long Congressman from Arizona, is facing a crowded field of Democratic challengers for his seat, while Ciscomani is likely to face a rematch against Kirsten Engel, a former state senator who has emerged as the leading Democratic candidate.
As Arizona voters prepare for the election year, Doug Cole, a veteran GOP strategist based in Arizona, warns, “You won’t be able to watch TV on commercial networks without watching political ad after political ad. Your mailbox will be stuffed. Many have predicted that Arizona will have the highest political spending per voter in the United States. So buckle up, voters.”
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