TL/DR –
Polling in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race shows Democrat Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake, with margins ranging from 4 to 14 points. Gallego has led in 45 of the 48 polls taken since U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced she would not seek a second term. Political forecast betting markets and various political prognosticating sources also predict a win for Gallego.
October Polls Indicate Democrat Ruben Gallego Leading in Arizona’s U.S. Senate Race
October kicked off with Democrat Ruben Gallego continually leading Republican Kari Lake in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race, according to latest polls. Results from six additional surveys in the past week from four different polling firms consistently showed Gallego ahead of Lake by margins ranging from 4 to 14 percentage points, as per figures tracked by FiveThirtyEight.com.
The most recent AtlasIntel poll displayed Gallego leading by 4 points. Throughout September, Gallego consistently led in all 11 polls of likely voters by margins between 4 to 14 points.
Since U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced in March that she would not seek a second term, Gallego has led in 45 of the 48 polls taken. Lake’s only polling lead was by 1 point in a survey conducted for her campaign. Early voting begins Oct. 9, the same day Lake and Gallego meet in their only scheduled debate.
Political Prognosticators’ Predictions on Lake vs. Gallego
Politics website, Real Clear Politics, gives Gallego a 5.8 percentage point advantage in its average of polls since late August. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections all rate the race as leaning towards Democratic.
Arizona Senate Race Betting Market Predictions
The political forecast betting markets also favor Gallego. Polymarket gives the Arizona Democrat an 85% chance of winning the race. PredictIt, an online wager market, shows the price of betting on the Democrat in Arizona as quadruple that of the Republican.
Additional Voter Insights
AdImpact, a nonpartisan media research firm, reported last week that Arizona’s Senate race had the second-largest ad spending disparity of seven competitive races this year. Democrats had a $22.6 million advantage over Republicans in the Gallego-Lake race.
Arizona Democrats have won three straight Senate races beginning in 2018, snapping a 30-year elective drought that included nine straight Republican wins. Since Sinema won her seat as a Democrat in 2018, the party has won by about 2 percentage points each time.
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