TL/DR –
U.S. Senate candidate Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, has a six-point lead over Republican Kari Lake, according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll. The poll also found that former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris by six points in Arizona. Other polls published this week have shown similar or larger leads for Gallego.
Recent Poll Shows Gallego Leading in Arizona Senate Race
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Ruben Gallego leads over Republican Kari Lake by 6 percent, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll. Gallego, a five-term member of Congress, has the support of 47% of voters, while former Phoenix broadcaster Lake has 41%. Green Party candidate Eduardo Quintana received 3% of respondents’ support.
The poll, conducted from Sept. 21 to Sept. 24, has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. Donald Trump was found to be leading over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona by 48% to 42%.
Other polls on Arizona’s Senate race published this week found similar or even larger leads for Gallego. A New York Times poll showed Gallego ahead by 6 points, while Fox News had him leading by 13 points among likely voters.
Less than 8% of the respondents were still undecided in the Senate race as early voting begins in Arizona on Oct. 9. Among the undecided is Joseph Madrigal, 44, of Yuma, a Republican who supported the late Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in his 2008 presidential run, but doesn’t like Trump or Lake.
Gallego’s lead is seen as important due to the different views voters hold of the two candidates. Independent Buckeye resident Esther Cafourek, 78, will be voting for Gallego because she supports abortion rights, while she disagrees with everything Kari Lake stands for.
Those with an unfavorable view of Lake outnumbered those with a favorable view by 15 percentage points. Fewer than 6% were undecided about Lake, who is familiar to Arizonans after her 2022 gubernatorial loss and her prominent national persona as a Trump campaign surrogate.
Gallego, on the other hand, had a net 7 percentage point favorable image among those polled. About a fifth of respondents were undecided or had never heard of Gallego. Lake’s net negative rating was worse than the negative ratings for Trump, which was -4 points; Harris, -11 points; and President Joe Biden, -14 points, according to the poll.
Most have seen Gallego’s ads, which emphasize his climb from humble roots in Chicago and as a Marine combat veteran. However, Lake has had more screen presence but has not presented a sustained biographical message for prospective voters. Fewer than 3% of respondents had not heard of Lake.
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