TL/DR –
Recent polls reveal that Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Ruben Gallego maintains a lead over his Republican rival, Kari Lake for the Arizona seat. Three nonpartisan political prognosticating organizations and the political forecast betting markets also favor Gallego. However, Lake has drawn the least Republican-supportive money in future television ad reservations among the eight most competitive Senate races.
Recent Polls Favor Gallego in Arizona Senate Race
Recent surveys indicate Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Ruben Gallego leading over Republican opponent Kari Lake. Polls from New York Times and London-based Telegraph showed Gallego leading by 6 and 5 points respectively. Additionally, Gallego led by 9 points in a Times poll of registered voters.
Gallego’s lead has been consistent since Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced she would not seek re-election. 39 out of 42 head-to-head polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight.com since March favored Gallego.
Two Republican-aligned polls in July and August showed the race tied, with one indicating Lake leading by 1 point. However, Gallego’s lead ranged from 2 to 15 points in polls since August. Real Clear Politics average of polls over the past month gives Gallego a 4.6 point advantage.
Political Prognosticators Predict Gallego’s Victory
Three nonpartisan political forecasting organizations also favor Gallego in the race. Inside Elections rates the race as “tilt Democratic,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball scores it as “leans Democratic,” and The Cook Political Report rates it as “lean Democratic.”
Betting Markets Also Favor Gallego
Political forecast betting markets also predict Gallego’s victory. Polymarket gives Gallego an 83% chance of winning, while PredictIt shows the price of betting on the Democrat in Arizona as quadruple that of the Republican.
What Voters Should Know
Lake has drawn the least Republican-supportive money in future television ad reservations in the eight most competitive Senate races across the country. Democrats have won three straight Senate races in Arizona since 2018, breaking a 30-year Republican winning streak. Since Sinema won her seat in 2018 as a Democrat, the party has won by about 2 points each time.
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