Why Western North Carolina Moved Left as U.S. Turned Right: Expert Views

TL/DR –

Despite a nationwide swing towards Republican support during the 2024 elections in the US, the Democrats saw a slight increase in support in Western North Carolina with counties such as Henderson, Buncombe, and Transylvania voting more Democratic than in 2020. These results may have been affected by the impact of Hurricane Helene, the politics surrounding the recovery, and the continuation of a longer trend towards Democrats in a region historically dominated by Republicans. The increase in support for Vice President Kamala Harris in the region, however, was not enough to offset the substantial losses in the east, keeping a tight margin of just over 3% separating Harris from President-elect Donald Trump.

Western North Carolina appears as a Democratic oasis amidst nationwide Republican support in November elections

Despite a nationwide trend favoring Republicans during the November elections, Democrats saw increased support in Western North Carolina. The region’s counties, including Henderson, Buncombe, Transylvania, Haywood, Mitchell, Ashe, and Gaston, observed a leftward shift.

Experts attribute this to various factors. The impact of Hurricane Helene and the politics of recovery was one, alongside a longer-term trend towards Democrats in historically Republican strongholds.

However, the progress for Vice President Kamala Harris was offset by losses in the east. A pattern of failing to turn out traditional Democratic supporters was echoed across the country, keeping the state among the closest nationwide, with only 3% of the vote separating Harris from President-elect Donald Trump.

The Hurricane Helene factor

Western North Carolina’s political shift in 2024 cannot be discussed without acknowledging the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene. About a fifth of registered voters in North Carolina live in counties that were part of the federal disaster declaration from Helene. Despite damage to infrastructure and fears of voter disenfranchisement, the region saw near record turnout in 2024, above the statewide average. Harris’s performance in these counties was better than her national performance, contrasting with a significant shift towards Trump.

Even in a disaster zone with counties leaning towards Trump, Harris outperformed the national change in margin. However, the question remains whether the shift towards Democrats was due to Hurricane Helene or longer-term regional shifts. Political science professor at Western Carolina University, Chris Cooper, suggests that the storm might have uniquely depressed Republican turnout.

Democrats’ focus on the region

Even before Hurricane Helene, North Carolina Democrats recognized the region as a growth opportunity. They believed western voters, including Republicans, were less likely to support extreme candidates. The skepticism among voters is driven by the region’s demographics, where Trump’s rhetoric has alienated many retiree and college-educated voters traditionally leaning Republican.

Increased focus on rural communities by the state Democratic Party and a renewed focus on rural communities may have benefited Democrats in the region. Their overperformance in the west was crucial to their expected disruption of the GOP supermajority in the General Assembly.

Enduring trend or temporary shift?

Longtime Democratic consultant Thomas Mills suggests the Democratic shift in western North Carolina is more a result of physical movement than political movement. He notes that counties with less migration tend to vote the same as they have for years. The trend of migration to these counties is likely to continue, creating more highly educated, wealthier electorates that lean Democratic.

Cooper notes that the trend is not new and reflects a longer-term shift away from the Republican Party under Trump in some counties in the west. The results in the west provide a potential roadmap for future Democratic strategies. “Henderson County was red yesterday, is red today, and will be red tomorrow,” says Cooper. “But the margins for Republicans are getting smaller, so it is essential to look beyond just who ‘won’ or ‘lost’ a county.”

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