Age remains a major factor in the partisan divide in U.S. politics
TL/DR –
New data from the Pew Research Center explores how U.S. partisan identity is changing in relation to demographic groups and factors such as home ownership, age, and education. Homeowners are more likely to identify as Republicans, while renters lean more heavily towards Democrats, with a 38-point difference in partisan identity. Meanwhile, education has become a significant polarization point, with Americans without a college degree leaning more Republican, while those with a degree tend towards the Democratic party; this educational divide is more pronounced among White people than among Black or Hispanic Americans.
The Unorthodox 2024 Presidential Election: Understanding Shifts in Partisan Identity
The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be unusual, most notably, featuring two major-party candidates from the last ballot. Both are broadly unpopular, and the election arrives amidst a significant generational shift in the United States.
The generational transition can help us understand how American politics, including the presidential race, is evolving. To guide this discussion, new data from the Pew Research Center exploring partisan identity among demographic groups is useful.
The Pew data suggests that homeowners are more likely to identify as Republicans while renters lean towards Democrats. This correlation is unlikely due to fervent adherence to Republican policy positions but rather demographic characteristics like wealth and age.
Another important consideration is racial identification’s overlap with age. Younger Americans are more likely to be non-White, and Pew data reveals that they are more likely to identify as Democratic-leaning independents.
Education intersects with age and is crucial to understanding partisan identity. The parties are becoming more diverse, older, and more educated, especially the Democratic Party. Younger Americans are more likely to have college degrees.
This education divide contributes to polarization, especially among White people, with those without a degree shifting more to the Republicans. However, the education divide is less pronounced among poorer Americans, and the richest tend to exhibit more substantial partisan gaps by education. Pew’s data also show a growing partisan identity gap in rural communities, but not in suburban areas.
Using age as a proxy for these underlying patterns is a valuable way to understand the broader trends shaping this odd political moment. Despite attention on partisan movement among Black and Hispanic Americans, other measurable trends, such as education, remain significant.
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