Potential Responses from Biden to the Drone Strike that Killed Three U.S. Soldiers
TL/DR –
The US is considering how to respond to proxy forces in Iran following a drone strike that killed three US service members in Jordan. The Biden administration could strike the forces directly, attack their Iranian suppliers, or use a combination of strikes and messaging to deter escalation. Despite sanctions and previous attacks, Iranian-backed groups have continued their attacks, sparking debate over whether it’s time for a stronger response.
US Weighs Options in Response to Iran-Backed Drone Attack Killing Three Service Members
The recent drone strike killing three U.S. service members in Jordan has intensified the Biden administration’s contemplation on retaliation measures against Iran. The administration aims to deter Iran’s proxy forces and send a clear message to Tehran.
Mr. Biden could escalate attacks on proxy forces – an intensification of recent actions in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. This would, however, risk opening another front in the war and could trigger Tehran to speed up its nuclear program.
Strikes could be combined with back-channel messaging to Iranians, signaling a non-escalation approach. This strategy saw success after America’s killing of Qassim Suleimani, the head of Iran’s powerful Quds Force in 2020.
Political Pressure and Military Strategies Amid Iran’s Proxy War
Today’s political pressures and regional fragilities differ from four years ago, with evidence suggesting a direct war is undesirable for Iran, particularly given its weakening economy.
James G. Stavridis, retired Navy admiral, advocates for a multiday air campaign against all proxies, coupled with a strong warning to Iran. He suggests considering options that target Iranian weapons production facilities, naval assets, and intelligence systems.
US forces have identified the major drone-making factories fueling attacks in Ukraine and supplying Hezbollah and other proxy groups. Response options include strikes on Iranian missile sites and air bases, and a detailed cyberattack option against Iran, code-named “Nitro Zeus,” which was shelved after a nuclear deal in 2015.
Rising Tensions and Potential Escalations
Neither Washington nor Tehran has been eager to trigger an all-out conflict due to the potential cycle of strikes and counterstrikes. However, calls for more aggressive action grow louder, particularly from Republicans criticizing Mr. Biden’s measured responses.
Despite these political pressures and increasing threats, it remains unclear whether Mr. Biden aims to deter Iran or its proxies. Intelligence officials state that while Iran provides weapons, funding, and sometimes intelligence to proxies, there’s no evidence that Tehran directly commands them.
Finding the Middle Ground Amid Escalating Tensions
With sanctions largely exhausted and the potential for cyberattacks limited, Mr. Biden’s options are narrowing. Striking against a variety of proxies could embolden some, while cyberattacks present their own difficulties. The most famous American-Israeli cyberattack on Iran, aimed at its nuclear centrifuges 15 years ago, slowed but did not halt Iran’s nuclear program.
Amidst an election season and ongoing wars, Mr. Biden’s challenge lies in curtailing Iran’s sponsorship of attacks on Americans without starting a new war.
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