U.S. Authorities Believe Russia May Not Seize Much More Ukrainian Land
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Russia’s forces in Ukraine are unlikely to make substantial territorial gains in the near future due to poor training and stiff resistance from well-equipped Ukrainian defences, according to U.S. officials. Despite thousands of casualties and little new territory gained, Russia’s efforts have significantly altered the war dynamics and put Ukraine on the backfoot. However, Western leaders attending the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding in Washington can argue that their efforts to strengthen Ukraine are effective, as Ukraine is focused on building up its defences and striking deep behind Russian lines, with NATO expected to promise new funding and coordinate weapons delivery.
Russia Unlikely to Gain Significant Territory in Ukraine, U.S Officials State
U.S. officials have announced that Russia is unlikely to make significant territorial gains in Ukraine due to the Western-reinforced Ukrainian defenses and its poorly trained forces. Russian troops have attempted to seize territory outside the city of Kharkiv and renew a push in eastern Ukraine despite suffering thousands of casualties and gaining little ground.
The war’s dynamics have shifted, with Russian forces continuing to inflict damage but their advances being slowed by the hardened Ukrainian defenses. Allied leaders, meeting in Washington for the 75th anniversary of NATO, can argue that their support is strengthening Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Future in NATO
Despite the continuous struggle, Ukraine’s future in NATO and the European Union has become the war’s primary focus. “Ukrainian forces face months of tough fighting, but a major Russian breakthrough is now unlikely,” mentioned Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Western leaders aim to integrate Ukraine into European and trans-Atlantic security structures, with the EU also commencing membership discussions with Ukraine.
Concerns hover over the summit about Russia’s acquisition of arms from Iran, North Korea, and China. There are also concerns about Ukraine’s ability to maintain its infrastructure amid long-range Russian attacks.
Impact of U.S. Policy and Ukraine’s Commitment to Europe
U.S. policy towards Ukraine following the upcoming presidential election can also impact the scenario. The U.S. has provided military advice, real-time intelligence, and billions of dollars in weapons under the Biden administration. Ukraine’s commitment to integrating into Europe has also increased since the April 2022 peace talks failed.
Officials believe that even without formally regaining its lost land, Ukraine can emerge victorious by moving closer to NATO and Europe. However, a significant strategic shift could still allow Russia to make headway, such as by expanding its military draft and training program.
Reporting by Lara Jakes and Anton Troianovski contributed to this report.
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