Five Non-Events of 2023
TL/DR –
In a retrospective of 2023, Atlantic Council experts discuss five significant events that didn’t occur: a U.S. recession, Russia using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, China invading Taiwan, Russia stopping Ukraine from exporting grain, and the U.S. and EU entering a trade war. The article suggests that these non-events had real-world effects, impacting where attention and resources were allocated. They conclude by stating that unexpected outcomes and uncertainties continue to shape global events, emphasizing the importance of considering not just what happened, but also what did not happen in understanding international dynamics.
Unrealized Predictions of 2023: Expert Insights from the Atlantic Council
2023 was indeed eventful, yet it is worth considering the anticipated events that didn’t occur. Certain expectations, even if they were possible, failed to materialize. These unrealized predictions, however, shaped the direction of resources and attention. Here, Atlantic Council experts discuss five significant non-events of 2023 that shed light on the world’s trajectory into 2024.
Jump to expert analysis:
Josh Lipsky: US economy avoided recession
Matthew Kroenig: Russia didn’t use nuclear weapon in Ukraine
Kitsch Liao: China refrained from invading Taiwan
Yevgeniya Gaber: Ukraine’s grain export continued despite Russia’s aggression
L. Daniel Mullaney: US and EU avoided a trade war
US Economy Avoided an Anticipated Recession
The economy didn’t enter a recession in 2023, defying economic analysts’ predictions. While many predicted a global recession was “inevitable“, US recession odds were predicted at 100 percent by Bloomberg. However, the global energy shock expected to define 2023 didn’t materialize and the US surprisingly continued adding jobs despite the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes. The lesson of 2023 was that the economic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic meant recovery didn’t follow the usual rules.
Russia Refrained from Using a Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine
The fear of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine in 2023 proved unfounded. Despite concerns about a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive leading to nuclear escalation by Russia, 2023 witnessed a stalemate with little movement on the frontlines. Additionally, Putin was deterred by fears of a US and NATO response. While these factors kept the nuclear taboo intact in 2023, if they change in 2024, concerns about Putin breaking the nuclear taboo could resurface.
China Did Not Invade Taiwan
Despite escalating tensions and China’s known desire to achieve “unification” with Taiwan, an invasion did not take place in 2023. While various factors pointed towards a potential crisis in the Taiwan Strait, China has yet to launch a full-scale invasion. The inherent difficulty of an amphibious invasion, the PLA’s ongoing modernization efforts, and China’s economic slowdown all played a role in deterring the attack. However, with Taiwan’s presidential election approaching in January, expect a continued ramp-up in disinformation and cognitive warfare as the Chinese Communist Party’s strategies become more sophisticated.
Russia Did Not Stop Ukraine’s Grain Exports
Despite Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023, Ukraine managed to maintain and even expand its maritime exports through humanitarian corridors. A combination of innovative maritime warfare tactics, Western support, and international awareness have helped Ukraine regain control over key maritime resources. However, as Russia is likely to intensify its efforts to disrupt supply chains and restrict freedom of navigation in 2024, Ukraine’s success in maintaining its status as a major
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