NREL Unveils 2023 Standard Scenarios

TL/DR –

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has released its 2023 Standard Scenarios, which illustrate 53 potential futures for the U.S. electricity sector through 2050. The mid-case scenario suggests that, by 2050, wind and solar could increase fivefold and tenfold respectively from current levels, while natural gas capacity could expand by 200 GW under current policies. The scenarios also predict a significant decrease in U.S. electricity sector emissions through the mid-2030s, with an 81% decrease in the mid-case scenario and 71%-86% across all current policy scenarios by 2035, compared to 2005 levels.

Annual Electricity System Scenarios Suggest Lower Emissions, Increased Renewables and Continuation of Clean Energy Tax Credits Until 2050

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) unveiled its latest 2023 Standard Scenarios for the possible evolution of the U.S. electricity sector until 2050. These scenarios facilitate power system planning and dialogue.

Produced annually by NREL, the Standard Scenarios are utilized by stakeholders in the U.S. electricity sector. NREL applies its Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to devise these scenarios based on its Annual Technology Baseline. The current edition presents 53 potential futures viewable on NREL’s Scenario Viewer.

“The aim of Standard Scenarios is providing an annually updated outlook on the potential trajectory of the U.S. electric grid,” explains Pieter Gagnon, NREL grid researcher. “It offers users an understanding of potential infrastructure, greenhouse gas emissions, and associated costs across diverse future possibilities.”

Key Insights from the Scenarios

The Standard Scenarios incorporate a Mid-case scenario reflecting potential outcomes if current trends and conditions persist. The 2023 Mid-case scenario suggests significant growth in wind and solar power by 2050, with wind reaching 750GW and solar 1,100GW. Natural gas capacity also continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace driven more by the need for firm capacity.

The Mid-case scenario considers emerging technologies like natural gas and coal with carbon capture, hydrogen combustion turbines, and small nuclear reactors. While these technologies have a limited role currently, they are projected to play a larger role in decarbonized futures.

Across all scenarios, U.S. electricity sector emissions decrease significantly through the mid-2030s. However, these decreases are not enough to phase out the Inflation Reduction Act’s clean energy tax credits, which in many scenarios persist through 2050.

Discover More About the 2023 Standard Scenarios

Learn more by joining a free NREL webinar at 11 a.m. MT on Jan. 24, 2024. Register here to attend. The Standard Scenarios technical report is also available online, along with the scenarios on the NREL Scenario Viewer.

Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, the Standard Scenarios make use of the latest technology cost and performance data from NREL’s Annual Technology Baseline. Learn more about NREL’s energy analysis research.