US Healthcare Cuts May Not Hurt Republicans Much – MIR
TL/DR –
The Republican’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” is projected to reduce federal spending on the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid by $1 trillion USD, causing an estimated 12 million more Americans to become uninsured by 2034. The bill is unpopular among the public, as it includes substantial cuts to public healthcare. However, the effects of these healthcare cuts will only take effect several years later, after the 2026 mid-term elections, which may limit their immediate political impact.
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The One Big Beautiful Bill’s Impact on Healthcare
Although it is often promoted as the continuation of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, the One Big Beautiful Bill proposed by Republicans carries significant implications for federal healthcare. According to estimates from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the bill will reduce federal spending on the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid by $1 trillion USD. This will lead to an estimated 12 million more Americans becoming uninsured by 2034.
Public Response to the Bill
The bill’s significant cuts to public healthcare have attracted a good deal of criticism. A Quinnipiac poll found that only 27 per cent of respondents support the legislation. Among Republicans, just 61 per cent have a favourable view of the bill. These cuts are politically risky for Republicans as a large portion of their increasingly working-class electorate relies on Medicaid for healthcare coverage.
Timing of the Cuts
In a strategic move, the controversial cuts to public healthcare funding in the bill will not take effect until after the 2026 midterm elections. Measures like Medicaid work requirements and a pre-enrolment Affordable Care Act eligibility verification will take effect at the end of 2026 and 2027 respectively. Furthermore, from October 2028 onwards, Medicaid enrolees will be required to pay out-of-pocket for certain benefits, potentially incurring up to $35 USD per service.
End of Affordable Care Act Tax Credits
Another healthcare concern for Republicans lies in whether to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits that Democrats passed in 2021. If the credits are not extended by September, voters will feel the repercussions when they enrol for their healthcare plans in November.
Political Implications
The unpopularity of the healthcare cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill and the expiry of the Affordable Care Act tax credits could pose significant challenges for Republicans in the 2026 midterms. However, the strategically timed implementation of these healthcare cuts may allow Republicans to avoid immediate backlash. It remains to be seen how voters will respond to the expiry of the tax credits, an issue that will become apparent before the 2026 midterms.
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