TL/DR –
Democrat Ruben Gallego is leading Republican Kari Lake in the U.S. Senate race in Arizona, according to polls. Gallego has reached the critical 50% support level in six consecutive polls. The Cook Political Report rates the race as “lean Democratic,” Inside Elections rates it as “tilt Democratic,” and Sabato’s Crystal Ball scores it as “leans Democratic.”
Arizona US Senate Race: Gallego Leads Lake in Early Voting Polls
As early voting commences in Arizona, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego’s significant lead over Republican Kari Lake in the U.S. Senate race continues to rise.
An October poll by RMG Research for the Napolitan Institute showed Gallego, a five-term member of Congress, leading Lake 52%-42% among likely voters. This 10-percentage-point lead is outside the poll’s margin of error and is consistent with similar findings from other pollsters, as reported by nonpartisan politics website FiveThirtyEight.
Gallego has consistently garnered 50% support in six consecutive polls and seven out of the last eight — all from different pollsters. Gallego has also shown a double-digit lead over Lake six times in the last 12 polls of likely voters.
Since early August, Gallego has led in every publicly available poll – 28 consecutive polls as of Monday. Furthermore, since U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s withdrawal from the race in March, Gallego has led 49 of the 52 polls.
The race also seems to have become more one-sided. Fourteen polls taken in August, after Lake was officially named the Republican nominee, showed Gallego leading on average 48%-41%. In September, 17 polls showed Gallego leading on average 51%-42%.
Political Prognosticators’ Predictions
Real Clear Politics, a politics website, gives Gallego a 7.8 percentage point advantage in its average of polls taken since early September. The Cook Political Report rates it as “lean Democratic,” while Inside Elections rates the race “tilt Democratic” and Sabato’s Crystal Ball scores it as “leans Democratic.”
Betting Markets Forecasts for the Arizona Senate Race
Political forecast betting markets also favor Gallego. Polymarket, the world’s largest wagering market, gives the Arizona Democrat an 87% chance of winning the race. PredictIt, an online wager market created by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, shows the price of betting on the Democrat in Arizona as quadruple that of the Republican.
Ad Spending in the Gallego-Lake Race
AdImpact, a nonpartisan media research firm, reported in late September that Arizona’s Senate race had the largest ad spending disparity of the competitive races this year. Democrats and their allies had spent $44 million compared to $14 million from Republicans and their allies in the Gallego-Lake race. In contrast, Arizona Democrats have reserved an additional $32 million in spending compared to the GOP’s $10 million.
Democrats have won three straight Senate races in Arizona since 2018, ending a 30-year drought that included nine consecutive Republican wins. Since Sinema won her seat in 2018 as a Democrat, the party has won by about 2 percentage points each time.
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