TL/DR –
The Arizona Republican Party’s endorsement of an 1864 law that criminalizes abortion could have electoral consequences. The political forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball has declared Democrat Ruben Gallego the narrow favorite to win Arizona’s open Senate seat, a race previously designated a “toss-up”. Sabato also noted that GOP candidate Kari Lake raised $3.6 million in the first quarter, compared to Gallego’s $7.5 million, and pointed out Lake’s extreme right-wing reputation, which he suggested she might need to soften to win the election.
Arizona GOP Faces Fallout Over Abortion Law: Sabato’s Crystal Ball Predicts Democratic Win
The Arizona Republican Party’s controversial adoption of a 1864 law that criminalizes abortion has sparked political upheaval. Democrat Ruben Gallego is now predicted by Sabato’s Crystal Ball to narrowly secure Arizona’s open Senate seat, a shift from the previous “toss-up” status.
Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani is also feeling the heat, with the forecast moving his rematch against Democrat Kirsten Engel from “leans Republican” to toss-up.
Sabato Foresees Challenges for Kari Lake
With the Republican-held legislature grappling over the abortion issue, and a potential statewide ballot to protect abortion rights, Sabato suggests that a major ballot fight over abortion rights could boost Democratic turnout in the state.
Sabato also highlighted the first-quarter fundraising results. Despite Kari Lake’s $3.6 million earnings being “decent”, they pale in comparison to Gallego’s $7.5 million. Sabato’s report warns Lake about her hard-right reputation and election denialism, suggesting she may need to moderate her image to win the election.
Arizona Races Now Considered Toss-Ups
Gallego, while left of center, enjoys a 4-to-1 cash advantage, giving him the resources to redefine his image. Southern Arizona’s swing congressional district is now also a toss-up, according to Sabato.
While Republican Ciscomani has not supported the strict territorial law in the past, the increased interest in abortion rights may not benefit him. His leading rival, former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D), is closing in on him in terms of fundraising.
It’s clear that, for Republicans to maintain control of the Legislature, they will need to repeal the abortion law. However, their mishandling of the issue this week suggests it may be too late.
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