National polls show incumbent President Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump more often than leading him in the run-up to the 2024 election. Biden’s easiest path to reelection appears to be through the Great Lakes region; recent polls show that he and Trump are tied in Wisconsin, a state Biden won by less than a point in 2020. These polls are consistent with other results, with Trump not leading in any Wisconsin poll this cycle, while he hasn’t trailed in any Georgia poll for over a year.
How Might Biden Secure Reelection in 2024?
Historically, the closest battleground states are either around the Great Lakes (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) or along the Sun Belt (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina). Winning all states in either region, along with the remaining states he won in 2020, would secure Biden’s reelection.
Current indications point to the Great Lakes as Biden’s most likely path to a second term. Two recent Fox News polls showed Biden and Trump tied in Wisconsin and Trump leading by 8 points in Georgia.
These polls align with previous trends. Trump hasn’t led in any Wisconsin poll this cycle, while in Georgia, he hasn’t trailed for well over a year.
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