Political Chaos in South Korea May Boost China’s Leverage, Say Analysts
TL/DR –
South Korea is facing political upheaval, and China could boost its influence over the country, according to analysts. The Democratic Party, considered sympathetic to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), has impeached two of the country’s top leaders, increasing the likelihood of a DP-led government. This scenario could potentially strain South Korea’s relations with Washington given the DP’s pro-China stance, leading to policy shifts that might disclose sensitive trade secrets and undermine South Korean businesses.
China Poised to Gain from South Korea’s Political Unrest
South Korea’s political instability, prompted by martial law controversy, affords China a chance to strengthen its influence over the nation, suggests Evans Revere, a former official during George W. Bush’s administration.
Beijing’s authoritarian governance style benefits from Seoul’s chaos, and China likely views the rising Democratic Party (DP), known for its sympathy towards the People’s Republic of China (PRC), as a positive development.
South Korea grapples with a profound political crisis, highlighted by the impeachments of the country’s leaders last month, including a standoff preventing the detention of President Yoon Suk Yeol due to security force interference.
The DP, after two successful impeachments in two weeks, is pushing for another attempt to detain Yoon. The future of suspended President Yoon is in the hands of the Constitutional Court. If judged in favor of impeachment, South Korea will hold elections, with the DP’s Lee Jae-myung seen as a strong contender.
Bruce Klingner from the Heritage Foundation suggests that Beijing could exploit the new DP government’s softer stance towards China to create divisions between South Korea and the US. Klingner’s report outlines Beijing’s strategy for stirring domestic resistance to Yoon’s policies.
The DP, described as “very pro-China,” would shift South Korean policies towards Beijing, warns Gordan Chang from the Gatestone Institute. The DP’s recent attempt to alter the Act on Testimony and Appraisal demonstrates how policies might change under their rule, potentially compromising national security and undercutting South Korean businesses.
On the other side, President Yoon resolves to resist anti-state forces endangering South Korea’s “liberal democracy and constitutional order”. However, the DP might lean more towards Beijing and show reluctance to support policies crossing China’s red lines, like backing Taiwan in a Taiwan Strait crisis, according to Andrew Yeo from the Brookings Institution.
Despite political shifts, both Lee and Robert Rapson, former Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul, anticipate ongoing robust U.S.-ROK relations, foreseeing even stronger partnerships on human rights and environmental issues.
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