US EV sales slow due to policy changes: BNEF
TL/DR –
US policy changes are decelerating the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), causing BloombergNEF (BNEF) to lower both its near-term and long-term EV adoption outlook for the first time. According to the 2025 Electric Vehicles Outlook report, BNEF now projects US passenger EV sales to rise from 1.6 million in 2021 to 4.1 million by 2030, accounting for 27% of total passenger car sales in the country, a drop from last year’s forecast of 48%. The report also states that these changes will have major implications for battery supply, causing overcapacity and intensifying market competition, and predicts a 8% drop in global battery demand outlook between 2025 and 2035.
Decelerating Adoption of Electric Vehicles in the U.S. Affects Global Outlook
According to BloombergNEF’s (BNEF) annual global outlook, the growth of electric vehicle (EV) sales is slowing due to policy changes in the United States. This year marks the first time the near-term and long-term outlook for EV adoption has been lowered in the 2025 Electric Vehicles Outlook.
Factors such as the rollback of national fuel-economy targets, potential removal of supportive elements in the Inflation Reduction Act, and the threat to California’s power to set its own air quality standards are predominantly responsible for this slowdown.
Despite last year’s global sales records and adoption surges in emerging markets across Asia and Latin America, BNEF’s head of clean transport and energy storage, Colin McKerracher, believes the U.S. landscape changes will impact EV adoption rates and the battery industry, leading to overcapacity in manufacturing.
BNEF now projects U.S. EV sales to increase from 1.6 million this year to 4.1 million by 2030, accounting for 27% of total passenger car sales by the decade’s end. This is a significant reduction from last year’s forecast of 48%.
The resulting effect on the battery supply market will be notable. BNEF’s global battery demand outlook for the period 2025 to 2035 has dipped 8% compared to last year’s forecast, attributing to 3.4 TWh fewer batteries. Passenger EV sales slump in the U.S. is responsible for 2.8 TWh of this decrease.
This situation creates a continued overcapacity that drives battery costs lower and intensifies market competition. Despite the near-term slump, BNEF remains optimistic about the long-term growth for battery metals as EVs gain faster adoption across all segments.
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