TL/DR –
U.S. Senator Kyrsten Sinema has yet to announce whether she plans to seek a second term, but she has until April 1 to gather over 42,000 signatures from eligible voters to qualify for the ballot. Currently, she is consistently finishing third in polls of the race, trailing behind Democrat Ruben Gallego or Republican Kari Lake. Despite her current standings and decreasing fundraising, some experts caution against writing Sinema off too quickly, noting she has over $10 million in her campaign fund and a significant track record of accomplishments.
US Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s Second Term Uncertain
US Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s political future remains unclear, as she consistently trails third in the polls behind Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake. She has until April 1 to gather over 42,000 signatures from eligible voters to qualify for the ballot.
Political comebacks are rare, especially for candidates trailing by double digits with less than eight months to go before voting beings. This is the challenge Sinema faces. Nevertheless, her spokesperson stated that she remains focused on her senatorial duties.
Political experts struggle to find comparable examples of comebacks in recent history. According to Jessica Taylor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, early polls must be taken with caution as the electorate is not fully engaged.
View Gallery – Kyrsten Sinema through the years
Sinema has been a pivotal senator in recent years, playing a leading role in national infrastructure spending plans and securing President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda. More recently, she helped broker a bipartisan bill to boost resources along the border with Mexico, which fell apart after former President Donald Trump urged Republicans to reject it.
Publicly available polling in Arizona’s Senate race is limited and reflects the slow-to-form candidate field. Sinema, who won in 2018 as a Democrat, hasn’t announced her plans, and Lake, the Republican front-runner, only entered the race in October.
The politics website FiveThirtyEight.com lists eight polls for the Arizona Senate race since Lake entered the contest. Of the six that included Sinema, she trailed by an average of more than 17 percentage points. Lake has recently shown a narrow lead over Gallego in polls conducted by left- and right-leaning firms.
If Sinema hopes to retain her seat, she must overtake not only one rival, but two, adding complexity to her campaign. Her fundraising has fallen three quarters in a row, while her competitors are likely to receive significant financial aid and campaign support from their respective parties.
Sinema is well known to voters, suggesting that most have already formed an opinion of her that could be hard to change. As Jessica Taylor noted, “Ruben Gallego is less of a known entity, so he has maybe more of an opportunity to introduce himself.”
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