TL/DR –
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is approaching a deadline for her reelection campaign or a departure after 12 years in Washington. By April 8, she must gather over 40,000 signatures from registered voters to qualify for the November ballot. Sinema, who left the Democratic party 13 months ago, is currently 20 percentage points behind leading challengers and has seen a noticeable slowdown in fundraising.
Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s Deadline for Re-election Decision Approaching
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is nearing what political insiders view as a realistic deadline for announcing her re-election campaign or stepping down after 12 years in Washington. Sinema has until April 8 to collect signatures from over 40,000 registered Arizona voters to qualify for the November ballot. Late-start campaigns tend to be more expensive, say industry experts.
Current polling data shows Sinema trailing by about 20 percentage points behind top challengers for her seat. Also, her fundraising efforts have noticeably slowed since her departure from the Democratic Party 13 months ago.
Despite this, Sinema’s campaign spending over the past year indicates a low-profile operation that would need a significant increase in funding and resources if she decides to defend her seat.
Key contenders for Sinema’s seat include Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., Kari Lake, a former TV newscaster and 2022 gubernatorial candidate, and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Unlike these candidates, Sinema’s potential run for another six-year term remains uncertain.
Under Arizona law, an independent candidate like Sinema must collect signatures from 3% of registered independent voters, a number six times higher than those affiliated with a political party. This process is a critical foundation for every campaign and can become expensive as the campaign launch date approaches.
Experts like Meghan Cox, CEO of Impact Advocacy Group, suggest that gathering signatures can be achieved in less than two months. However, costs increase as resources get drained by other candidates across the country.
Based on recent registration reports, Sinema’s campaign would need to gather about 56,000 signatures to ensure a smooth verification process. The cost of qualifying for the ballot could exceed $4 million, a significant chunk of Sinema’s $10.8 million campaign fund.
Signature collection efforts usually involve a combination of electronic outreach to known voters and public interaction, such as standing outside grocery stores. While the former method yields signatures with fewer verification issues, the latter approach reaches a broader pool of potential voters.
However, the latter method tends to have higher disqualification rates. Also, Sinema’s campaign may heavily rely on paid collectors as she doesn’t typically participate in large-scale political events that can gather signatures from supporters. And, there’s no political party to provide additional personnel.
Lastly, qualifying for the ballot should never be overlooked. Past campaigns have made costly mistakes in this regard. The cost of Senate races in Arizona has skyrocketed in recent years, with the 2022 race involving Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., costing over $309 million.
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