Sinema vs Gallego vs Lake: Who’s in the Lead?



A recent poll shows Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leading in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race, with Kari Lake, the potential GOP nominee, trailing behind and incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema in third place. The poll, conducted by national Republicans, found Gallego with 41% support, Lake with 37%, and Sinema with 17%. Despite Sinema’s low ranking, her campaign spending reports suggest she is preparing to seek a second six-year term.

Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego Leads in Arizona Senate Race

According to polling data from national Republicans, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is currently leading in the Arizona U.S. Senate race, surpassing potential GOP nominee Kari Lake and incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.

In a recent presentation, Sen. Steve Daines, head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, stated Sinema is pulling votes from the GOP, not Democrats. Additionally, Sen. Lindsey Graham expressed confidence in Lake winning the party’s nomination.

Goss, a spokesperson for Gallego’s campaign, praised the poll’s results, stating Gallego is best positioned to win the race and continue his work for Arizonans.

The poll, conducted last week, showed Gallego with 41% support, Lake at 37%, and Sinema with 17%. Despite the poll’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error, the race is considered a statistical tie according to the NRSC’s communications director.

Arizona politics: Right-wing cameras keeping heat on Rep. Ruben Gallego

Despite uncertainties, Sinema appears a distant third at the moment. Other polls generally show Gallego narrowly leading or tied, but the GOP’s field has been clouded throughout the year. Lake, who entered the race on Oct. 10, is viewed as the favorite to win the GOP nomination.

However, after her gubernatorial defeat in 2022, Lake is also seen as beatable in a general election. Morning Consult, a non-affiliated pollster, found that Sinema’s net approval rating has increased since she left the Democratic Party to become an independent.

Overall, 42% of respondents approve of Sinema’s performance, while 44% disapprove, making her one of the least popular incumbent senators up for reelection next year. Sinema’s campaign reportedly distributed a memo to potential donors outlining a path to victory that relies on winning heavily among Arizona’s independent voters.

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