Insights on Key Political Dynamics and Campaign Trail Analysis: NBC Politics

Explore the online edition of From the Politics Desk. This evening newsletter offers the latest from NBC News Politics, covering critical dynamics defining the final stage of the presidential race and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

Appearances from senior political editor Mark Murray and senior White House reporter Peter Nicholas offer insight into key polling dynamics and Barack Obama’s struggling message to his intended audience.

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Key forces defining the election final days

By Mark Murray

Two weeks out from Election Day, the polls reflect a tight race. However, the national and battleground state polls reveal significant dynamics that have marked the campaign between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Poll after poll show living cost as voters’ main concern. However, when asked about a single issue that would determine their vote, abortion was the frontrunner, according to a national NBC News poll.

The gender gap is real: Harris is leading among female voters by 14 points, while Trump is garnering male support by 16 points. The demographic to watch is white women with college degrees, supporting Harris by a remarkable 28 points.

Trump gains with Latino and Black voters: Despite Harris and Democrats advancing with white women with college degrees, they’ve lost ground with Latino voters and to a lesser extent, Black voters. The larger shift could decide the presidential race.

Voters view Trump’s presidency more positively than Biden’s. Trump’s retrospective job approval rating (48%) is higher than President Joe Biden’s current job approval rating (43%), per this month’s NBC News poll. 

Harris is more popular than Trump. Yet the gap is closing depending on the poll. Harris’ net popularity advantage ranges from 2 points to 22 points.

The third-party vote share is shrinking: Biden’s withdrawal from the race has seen third-party presidential candidates’ support dropping to just 4 to 5 points. This could impact a close election, as a sizable third-party vote in 2016 allowed Trump to secure key battleground states with 47% to 48% of the vote.

Voters are divided over whether Harris or Trump is the change candidate: The October NBC News poll showed Harris leading Trump by 5 points, 45% to 40%, on who better represents change.

Obama struggles to win over Young Black men on the campaign trail

By Peter Nicholas

Despite being politically informed and engaged, 23-year-old Black college student Charles Johnson is leaning towards voting for Donald Trump. “The media says he [Trump] is horrible and he’s racist, but he’s only gaining support with Black voters,” Johnson said in an interview. “He’s only gaining support with Black men.”

Obama’s attempts to rally support for Harris among Black men like Johnson appear to be faltering. Obama and his team will be doing interviews with influential Black internet personalities and podcasters in the final days before the election.

Yet there’s uncertainty over whether Obama’s target audience is listening. At recent rallies in Tucson and Las Vegas, the turnout among young Black men seemed thin. Obama’s role as a compelling messenger may be waning for this demographic, according to some attendees.

Read more from Peter →