Raleigh Winter Forecast: Farmers Almanac vs. Weather Service

Last updated Oct 18, 2023

TL/DR –

The Farmers’ Almanac has predicted cold spells for November and December in Raleigh and the eastern half of North Carolina based on its secret forecasting formula. Meanwhile, meteorologist Nick Luchetti from the National Weather Service’s Raleigh office notes that a developing El Nino is likely to make the weather colder and wetter than normal. However, Luchetti cautions that it might not necessarily be colder when it’s wetter, making it difficult to predict snowfall.

Dusting of Early Snow in North Carolina Mountains Sparks Winter Envy

Early snowfall in the North Carolina mountains has sparked winter envy across the state. Winter in North Carolina is usually more a state of mind rather than meteorological reality, particularly in regions where porch furniture never truly gets put away. However, we’ve sought opinions from reliable weather sources on when winter-like weather may hit Raleigh and the rest of the eastern half of the state.

Winter Predictions According to the Farmers’ Almanac

The Farmers’ Almanac, using its secret forecasting formula, predicts weather spells throughout the year. For instance, it predicted an early cold spell for Oct. 1-3, but temperatures in Raleigh remained in the low 80s. The Almanac indicates hopes for cooler weather for those who favor fleece, with the following predictions:

Nov. 4-7: Fair and cold, with expected frost.
Nov. 16-19: Cold enough for wet snow in the Tennessee Valley. Rain elsewhere.
Nov. 28-30: Snow and sleet mix in Tennessee and N.C. mountains, cold rain elsewhere.
Dec. 20-23: Cold rain for much of North Carolina, snow in the mountains. Clearing by Dec. 27.
Dec. 29-31: A storm up the coast with a threat of precipitation. Snow or rain is not specified.

National Weather Service/Climate Prediction Center

Government Forecast Insights on Winter Weather

Meteorologist Nick Luchetti from the Raleigh office of the National Weather Service notes that a moderate-to-strong El Nino is developing, likely causing weather in North Carolina and the Southeast to be wetter and colder than normal. However, predicting if there will be snow is challenging as it may not necessarily be colder when it’s wetter.

Regarding when it will feel like winter in North Carolina, Luchetti offers some insights. Firstly, the average high for the state’s winter months, meteorologically being December, January, and February, is in the low- to mid-50s. Therefore, for those who moved from colder states like Michigan, it might never truly feel like winter. Secondly, the National Weather Service only provides specific forecasts seven days out. But its Climate Prediction Center considers long-term weather trends and currently estimates a 50% to 55% chance of below-normal temperatures in North Carolina through Nov. 10.

Despite the cold predictions, Mother Nature still has at least one more tropical storm in store for the Atlantic region later this week. Indeed, that’s cold.